Whether you are the biggest supporter or largest detractor of Miami EDGE Rueben Bain Jr. as an elite 2026 NFL Draft prospect, he is an outlier by definition. The word outlier has a very negative connotation, but there are also positive outliers – players who excelled despite history saying that the odds were stacked against them greatly. 

The outlier talk centers around Bain’s arm length, which measured in officially at 30 ⅞ inches at the 2026 NFL Scouting Combine. The track record for EDGE defenders turning into elite players on the NFL level with that level of length, or at least high-end contributors, is not overly optimistic. It’s mostly a who’s who list of really fun college football players. 

While most at least appreciate Bain as a high-floor player, the historical data does say that there is a lot more boom or bust potential to his profile than some will admit. The “just truth the film” advocates are correct in their premise, but when you are an NFL decision maker potentially investing in an all-time historical outlier, it’s understandable to be a bit hesitant. 

When making this big of a decision, potentially taking Bain inside of the top-five selections, you want as much information as possible. While doing some research, I explored the EDGE defenders who fit the same threshold as Bain since 1999 according to Mockdraftable. I even expanded on the threshold to get a bigger snapshot of the historical data.

Just how much of an outlier is Bain? A massive one. 

31-inch arms and shorter  

2025 Ethan Downs (Oklahoma) 31 

2021 Elijah Ponder (Cincinnati) – 31

2021 Wyatt Hubert (Kansas State) – 31

2016 Dean Lowry (Northwestern) – 31

2015 Kyle Emanuel (North Dakota State) – 31

2011 Cheta Ozougwu (Rice) – 31 

2011 Ricky Elmore (Arizona) – 31

2026 Jack Pyburn (LSU) – 30 ⅞ 

2026 Rueben Bain Jr. (Miami) – 30 ⅞ 

2022 Tyree Johnson (Texas A&M) – 30 ⅞”

2025 Collin Oliver (Oklahoma State) – 30 ¾ 

2019 Sutton Smith (Northern Illinois) – 30 ¾” 

2013 Nate Williams (Ohio State) – 30 ⅝ 

2024 Gabriel Murphy (UCLA) 30 ½” 

2026 Cashius Howell (Texas A&M)  – 30 ¼” 

2011 Bruce Miller (UCF) – 30 ¼” 

2026 Caden Curry (Ohio State) – 30 ⅛” 

If you’re trying to convince yourself of a positive outlier in terms of arm length, this is not the bucket that you want to be a part of. Of the 16 EDGE defenders who measured in with 31-inch arms or shorter, only Dean Lowry has been able to carve out a consistent role on the NFL level. There is a slight asterisk next to Lowry’s name, however, having transitioned to the interior as a pro at 6-6 and 296 pounds. 

In total, that group has combined to collect 464 total tackles, 36 tackles for loss, and 21.5 sacks on the NFL level. Lowry has accounted for 271 total tackles, 23 tackles for loss, and 16.5 sacks of that total. Without him, only Kyle Emanuel carved out any sort of rotational role on defense. Bruce Miller, who was a record setting pass rusher at UCF, became a 6-year pro as a fullback. 

No player in that group has made a Pro Bowl. None of them have managed to record a double digit sack season. Lowry had five sacks in 2021 for the Green Bay Packers, which was the best individual season of anyone on the list. Needless to say, the deck is stacked against Bain by being a part of that grouping. 

Between 31 and 31.5-inch arms 

2021 Micah Parsons (Penn State) – 31 ½ 

2021 Romeo McKnight (Charlotte) – 31 ½ 

2018 Hercules Mata’afa (Washington State) – 31 ½ 

2017 Carl Lawson (Auburn) – 31 ½ 

2017 Ryan Anderson (Alabama) 31 ½ 

2012 Melvin Ingram (South Carolina) – 31 ½ 

2012 Jamie Blatnick (Oklahoma State) – 31 ½ 

2026 Nadame Tucker (Western Michigan) – 31 ⅜ 

2026 Logan Fano (Utah) – 31 ⅜ 

2025 Antwaun Powell-Ryland (Virginia Tech) – 31 ¼ 

2023 Nick Herbig (Wisconsin) – 31 ¼ 

2015 Markus Golden (Missouri) – 31 ⅛ 

2015 Davis Tull (Chattanooga) – 31 ¼ 

As far as outliers go, this group should create a whole lot more optimism, even if Bain technically isn’t a part of it. I included Green Bay Packers All-Pro pass rusher Micah Parsons, although he wasn’t listed as an EDGE coming out of Penn State. He made the transition from linebacker when he made it to the NFL, so we can count the freakshow who ran a 4.39-second forty-yard dash coming out of college, if you’d like. 

Parsons has managed to record 297 total tackles, 75 tackles for loss, and 65 sacks so far during five seasons with the Packers and Dallas Cowboys. He has been a Pro Bowler each year, and selected as an All-Pro three times. 

Aside from Parsons, there were 12 more EDGE defenders who measured between 31 ⅛ and 31 ½ inches. That group managed to record 1,083 total tackles, 217 tackles for loss, and 166 sacks. The headliners of that list were Ingram, Golden, Lawson, and Herbig. Ingram was the lone Pro Bowler in that grouping. Golden joined him as a pass rusher that recorded a double digit sack season. 

That means that of the 13 EDGE defenders who fit inside this group (counting Parsons), there were two Pro Bowlers and three players who recorded at least one double digit sack season. It’s still not a great percentage of success, but it’s better. 

Up to 32-inch arms 

2026 Aidan Hubbard (Northwestern) – 32

2026 Keyron Crawford (Auburn) – 32

2026 Wesley Williams (Duke) 32

2025 Jalon Walker (Georgia) – 32

2025 Mike Green (Marshall) – 32 

2021 Noah Curtis (FIU) – 32

2021 Patrick Johnson (Tulane) – 32

2021 JaQuan Bailey (Iowa State) – 32 

2018 Darius Jackson (Jacksonville State) – 32

2018 James Looney (Cal) – 32 

2017 Trey Hendrickson (FAU) – 32

2012 Courtney Upshaw (Alabama) – 32 

2012 Jake Bequette (Arkansas) 32

2010 Brandon Lang (Troy) – 32

2025 Ashton Gillotte (Louisville) – 31 ⅞ 

2025 David Walker (Central Arkansas) – 31 ⅞ 

2025 Jack Sawyer (Ohio State) – 31 ¾ 

2018 Ola Adeniyi (Toledo) – 31 ¾ 

2018 Jojo Wicker (Arizona State) – 31 ¾ 

2026 R Mason Thomas (Oklahoma) – 31 ⅝ 

2026 Trey Moore (Texas) – 31 ⅝ 

2016 Kamalei Correa (Boise State) – 31 ⅝

2014 Kyle Van Noy (BYU) – 31 ⅝ 

This ended up being the biggest grouping discussed, having 23 EDGE defenders in total. Despite a higher volume, the results were actually not nearly as good as you would expect. Hendrickson is the biggest outlier of the outlier group, in a good way, having developed into one of the best NFL pass rushers in recent memory. 

Van Noy has also been a success story as a versatile defender coming out of BYU in the 2014 NFL Draft. Of the 23 players listed, those were the only two who have made a Pro Bowl and managed to record a double digit sack season. There are a lot of opportunities for breakouts from this list from guys like Walker and Green in the future, but for now, Hendrickson and Van Noy are the two most positive outliers. 

One note: I excluded Terrell Suggs in this exercise. Some have speculated that he had 32-inch arms coming out of the 2003 NFL Draft but there is nothing official out there. That measurement certainly didn’t happen at the Scouting Combine that year, and there isn’t legitimate sourcing from the Arizona State Pro Day, so it felt weird including something not truly verifiable. 

That means, in total, there have been 52 EDGE defenders since 1999 who have had 32-inch arms or shorter. Of those 52, only four players have made at least one Pro Bowl. Only five players managed to record a double digit sack season. None of those five fell into the sub 31-inch group, which should be a concern to every person who chooses not to care about Bain’s outlier measurement.  

Perhaps the most troubling part of the list of players is there is barely any middle ground of outcomes. Outside of that small group of successes, there aren’t many valuable rotational players. When you are dealing with historical outliers, there is naturally going to be some boom or bust potential. 

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