---

SUBSCRIBE to our emails here:

_{By submitting this form, you hereby acknowledge and agree to receive email communications from A to Z Sports. We value your privacy and will handle your information with care. You will have the option to unsubscribe from our emails at any time through a link provided in each correspondence. Please review our Privacy Policy for more details about how we manage your information.}

---

NFL Draft: Risky picks, best sleepers, and prospect fatigue

The 2025 NFL Draft is a little over two weeks away! In the past week our draft gurus at A to Z have thrown together some lists highlighting draft prospects who fall under three distinct categories: the riskiest picks, the best sleepers, and those who are suffering the most from prospect fatigue.

Prospects suffering most from overthink

I’m highlighting this first because I think this is the most intriguing list. Draft season is long — probably too long, honestly. This can lead to overanalysis, or as our writer Ryan Roberts puts it, prospect fatigue. In his piece, Ryan highlights four prospects who are suffering the most from this phenomenon.

Will Johnson, CB, Michigan: “Heading into the 2024 season, most people had Johnson ranked as a top five player in the 2025 class. That campaign was a wash with Johnson dealing with various nagging injuries. When Johnson is healthy, he’s one of the more easy evaluations in this class. Johnson possesses a tremendous frame, football IQ, ball skills, and hip mobility. He will, at worst, be a good starter on the NFL level.”

Luther Burden III, WR, Missouri: “The Burden questions are the most understandable on this list. He did see a huge decrease in production this past season. There is, however, reason for it. The offense struggled as a whole, including the offensive line, the quarterback play, and Burden was banged up throughout the season. Burden still brings impressive athleticism and YAC ability to the table. That provides a pretty easy floor. For my money, this is still the top wide receiver in the class, and a Golden Tate clone.”

Mason Graham, DT, Michigan: “The overthink around Graham is especially puzzling. This is probably the easiest evaluation in the entire class overall. You mean you don't love an interior defensive lineman with a wrestling background, tremendous hands, flexibility, and power? What am I missing here? Graham is going to be a plus starter at the very worst case scenario. He has the look of a future Pro Bowler, and is a slam dunk top five player in this class.”

Malaki Starks, S, Georgia: “Georgia really did Starks a huge disservice in 2024. He is a safety that excels at making plays from depth, and they decided to make him play the majority of the time from the slot. When used properly, Starks is one of the five best players in the entire class. Even with the uneven play this past season, I am still betting on this combination of range, ball skills, and versatility. Starks is still the top safety in this class.”

Riskiest prospects

Analysis paralysis is, however, caused by the risky nature of the draft. There’s no failproof formula to determine the next best NFL prospect — some guys just bust despite having all the potential in the world. Our guy Ian Valentino looked into a handful of prospects who have huge potential but could still be risky picks on draft day. Below are some highlights:

Walter Nolen, DT, Ole Miss: “There are moments when watching Walter Nolen on the field brings to mind the dominance of Gerald McCoy or Aaron Donald. At 296 pounds, his speed and agility are striking, often making him appear smaller as he changes directions with an unusual quickness. Teams are banking on these standout traits.

“In 2024, Nolen's performance surged compared to previous years, marked by a significant increase in advanced statistics. His quarterback hurries tripled, and he surpassed his previous best in run stops. However, there remains some skepticism within the league regarding Nolen's consistency and his drive to achieve his full potential.”

Cameron Ward, QB, Miami (FL): “It appears that Cameron Ward is on track to become Tennessee's next quarterback. As a likely No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, he stands out from the competition. In 2024, he recorded impressive career numbers at Miami and showcased a remarkable physical skill set that’s hard to overlook.

“However, Ward's mechanics, his capability to lead receivers into open space, and his tendency to avoid turnover-prone throws have been inconsistent. [Jordan] Love worked out many of his flaws as a backup in Green Bay, but Ward won’t benefit from having someone like Aaron Rodgers above him on the depth chart or an established coach like Matt LaFleur. The circumstances are crucial for quarterbacks, just as they are for any position.”

Jalen Milroe, QB, Alabama: “Jalen Milroe faces a challenging path if he hopes to become a success like those chosen in Round 2. The exceptional athlete from Alabama possesses a powerful arm and is an impressive runner, but both his accuracy and decision-making leave much to be desired. He will require time and proper repetitions within the right system to evolve beyond just a physical talent focused on making highlight-reel plays.

“That said, only Ward can match Milroe’s elite athleticism in this draft class. The potential reward is that he could emulate the success of former Alabama standout Jalen Hurts or become an improved version of Tyrod Taylor. Given those possibilities, it could be worthwhile to draft and develop Milroe.”

Best sleeper prospects

Okay, we have our risky picks, but what about our sleepers? Which prospects are not being talked about enough? Ian found six prospects who fit this category — a few are below:

Tyler Baron, EDGE, Miami (FL): “One of Baron's standout traits is his impressive speed off the edge, making him one of the top prospects in this class. He boasts four seasons of solid pass-rush productivity, proving he’s more than just impressive at workouts.

“His performance at the Combine was remarkable, clocking a 4.62 in the 40-yard dash and achieving stellar jumping metrics at almost 6-foot-5 and 258 pounds. Despite his strong film, statistics, and physical traits, Baron is seldom mentioned as a candidate for an NFL starting position.

“While Baron's run defense and missed tackle rates are average, nitpicking this aspect of his game seems unfair, especially since other comparable prospects don’t face the same scrutiny. His top-tier strengths will certainly secure him a role in the league.”

Nick Nash, WR, San Jose State: “How little attention should a 6-foot-2, 203-pound receiver with 104 receptions, 1,382 yards, and 16 touchdowns be receiving? Nick Nash’s career trajectory has been intriguing, especially after starting out as a quarterback. In 2023, he transitioned to receiver and quickly emerged as a formidable playmaker, thanks to his size and power.

“While he may not be the most explosive deep threat, he resembles players like Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a larger receiver capable of winning both inside and outside. His role as a dependable big slot is highly valuable as offenses increasingly seek versatile players who can function well in any formation.

“With an impressive catch rate below 6% over the past two years, a 50% contested catch rate in 2024, and his overall dependability, Nash stands out as a prime Day 3 prospect who could have a breakout performance early in his career.”

Quincy Riley, CB, Louisville: “A year ago, Quincy Riley was coming off an impressive season and was seen as a potential first-round pick in 2025. He posted an NFL passer rating of just 37.2, which ranked as the third-lowest of his career. Most notably, his tackling efficiency improved significantly, reaching nearly 90%.

“Riley was starting to develop a game reminiscent of Jaire Alexander. However, he returned for a senior season that turned out to be disappointing, as many things went awry. His missed tackle rate more than doubled, and the passer rating he allowed was the worst of his career. Despite his usage remaining the same, he struggled throughout the season.

“Rather than pulling out, I'm choosing to invest in Riley during this downturn. His film still showed promise, even if a couple of poor games impacted his overall stats.”

---

Are these NFL records untouchable?

Alexander Ovechkin finally did it. On Sunday, the Washington Capitals wing broke Wayne Gretzky's seemingly untouchable goal record by scoring the 895th goal of his career. As our writer Tyler Forness puts it, this “proves there is no record that is truly unbeatable.”

Continuing that theme, Tyler threw together a list of seven NFL records that seem unbeatable. But the question is, are they actually unbeatable?

Brett Favre’s 336 interceptions: “Favre was a first-ballot Hall of Famer who was a pure gunslinger. He didn't see a throw he couldn't make, and that both won his team's games, but lost them just as much. His 336 interceptions are 59 more than second place and 85 more than Peyton Manning, the only player in the top 10 that played past the year 2010. With the rule changes in today's NFL, interceptions are significantly down, meaning this record may never be broken.”

Jerry Rice’s 197 receiving touchdowns: “Jerry Rice is similar to Gretzky when it comes to NFL records. His 20 years in the NFL led to a lot of fascinating records, but the one that stands out is his touchdown record. It's 41 more than Randy Moss in second place with Mike Evans at ninth with 105. Touchdowns are inherently random and Rice having that many with 20 years of sustained success is highly unlikely to ever be duplicated.”

Bruce Smith’s 200.0 sacks: “Sacks are very hard to come by in today's game, especially with the amount of passing offenses that get the ball out quicker and quicker these days. Only two players in the top 10 played a game past the 2003 season, with fifth-place Julius Peppers with 159.5 sacks and 10th place Michael Strahan with 141.5 sacks. It's so hard to stay consistent with sacks. Even J.J. Watt, who was a monster with sacks during his career, is 34th in NFL history with 114.5.”

Emmitt Smith’s 18,355 rushing yards: “Running the ball with success is coming back en vogue, but it's not the same as it was 25 years ago. There are rarely long-term alpha running backs left in the NFL, as teams are shifting toward a more running back by committee philosophy. Smith's success over his career with that offensive line won't be able to be duplicated nearly as easily.”

Alexander Ovechkin breaking Wayne Gretzky’s goal record highlight multiple NFL records deemed untouchable

There are some unbreakable NFL records that could never be broken

---

Only A to Z Sports newsletter subscribers get the rest of this email, which has the latest NFL news and more.

Don't miss out on next week's full newsletter: SUBSCRIBE to our FREE weekly NFL newsletter to receive updates on your favorite NFL team and the rest of the league straight to your inbox.

_{By submitting this form, you hereby acknowledge and agree to receive email communications from A to Z Sports. We value your privacy and will handle your information with care. You will have the option to unsubscribe from our emails at any time through a link provided in each correspondence. Please review our Privacy Policy for more details about how we manage your information.}