The truth about Texas quarterback Arch Manning’s NFL draft future and whether he should return to school in 2026
Should Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning declare for the 2026 NFL Draft?
At the start of the 2025 college football season, Texas quarterback Arch Manning was projected as a potential first overall pick without playing a snap.
A rocky start to the 2025 season completely derailed that projection. Many were declaring Manning a bust before they gave him a chance to improve. After several stellar performances, the sentiment on Manning’s future has become more optimistic. Finishing the year with 2,942 passing yards, 32 total touchdowns, and seven interceptions has made it clear he still has first-round potential.
However, now that we’re nearing the time of the year when prospects declare for the upcoming NFL Draft, the possibility of him being a first-round pick is being revisited. Has Manning done enough to be worth a first-round pick, or is he better off continuing to develop?
My colleague Ryan Roberts and I watched his film and reached a verdict on the critical question: Should Arch Manning stay at Texas in 2026?
Should Arch Manning declare?
Roberts: Don’t Declare
There has been some recent hype around Manning, and it’s understandable why. Over the last several games, the talented signal caller has been playing a ton better. The talent has always been there, but folks have been patiently waiting for Manning to actualize that talent into on field production. While he would undoubtedly go high if he decided to declare for the 2026 NFL Draft, it would be a very dumb decision right now.
As a redshirt sophomore, the dreaded record of one-year starters is a list that Manning isn’t going to want to be a part of. Manning needs to play, see more live reps, and learn how to bounce back from rough stretches. Returning to college in 2026 will be best for his long term outlook, and judging by the family he comes from, that will figure into his decision heavily.
Entering the 2027 NFL Draft conversations, Manning will once again be the crown jewel of the preseason breakouts, and this year it’ll he more deserved. The 6-4, 220-pounds pocket passer has a ton of arm talent and impressive athleticism. His upside is through the roof, but Manning still needs time to reach that ceiling.
DeLeone: Don’t Declare
Since his disastrous start to 2025, Manning has improved considerably. He’s visibly been more comfortable and calm. His poise and decision-making are improving. And the first-round tools of his athleticism and overall arm talent have begun to show. The signs are promising and exciting as someone who’s been a Manning defender this whole time.
However, he needs to go back to school. First and most important, the history of quarterbacks who have succeeded in the NFL with a limited number of college starts is limited. One constant has remained true in quarterback evaluation: when talented QB prospects play more college football, they play better in the NFL earlier. It’s the one position that requires the most reps, and those who are underprepared falter. Look at Anthony Richardson and Mitch Trubisky.
Aside from the philosophical reason, Manning doesn’t have enough consistent tape for me to buy in on him as an early first-round pick at this current moment. While there are noticeable strides, he’s still not as refined as one would like for a prospect worth a top ten pick. His decision-making and consistency in ball placement need to improve.
It doesn’t make any sense for Manning to jump into this class if he’s not clearly in the running for the first overall pick. Why declare when you can wait, and make a strong case to be the first selection in 2027? And while doing so, accomplish what you set out to do in winning a national title at Texas.
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