Drew Dalman’s run-blocking and steady growth make him free agency's smartest center investment
In 2021, PFF made a study based on wins above replacement to determine the most and least valuable positions in football. If you had to guess which position is the least valuable excluding specialists, it would probably be running back. Surprisingly, though, the correct answer is center. Combining the top 32 players at each position […]
In 2021, PFF made a study based on wins above replacement to determine the most and least valuable positions in football. If you had to guess which position is the least valuable excluding specialists, it would probably be running back. Surprisingly, though, the correct answer is center.
Combining the top 32 players at each position during the 2020 NFL season, it was found that centers generated only 2.53 wins above replacement, behind running back (2.99) and well behind the other offensive line positions—tackle (6.00) and guard (4.89).
This is why, even though old-school coaches love to say how important a good center is, the market is limited. The highest-paid center in football is Kansas City Chiefs' Creed Humphrey, making $18 million a year. And he's the only one averaging more than $13.5 million per season.
At the same time that the value is underwhelming for players, it creates opportunities for teams to have good players for less money.
Atlanta Falcons' Drew Dalman is not exactly a rising star, but everything he puts on the table makes him a compelling target in free agency.
Drew Dalman and the case to sign him in free agency
A fourth-round pick in 2021, Dalman played 2,598 snaps at center throughout his rookie contract. A backup during his rookie season, he became the starter in 2022.
Just like most of the Falcons' offensive line, he is a better run-blocker than pass-blocker. And in Arthur Smith's offensive system, that became obvious. In 2023, he had an elite season as a run-blocker, with a 90.0 PFF grade, while having a 53.0 pass block grade.
However, new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson did a good job of putting Dalman in better positions as a pass-blocker in 2024, and he had his best season in that regard. He allowed only 10 pressures in 295 pass-blocking snaps, a 97.8% efficiency. He had only three penalties the entire season.
Early last season, Dalman had a serious ankle injury that made him play only nine games in 2024. But it's not an issue with long-term implications.
Center market
According to Spotrac, Dalman is expected to receive a three-year, $20.2 million contract in free agency. A $6.8 million yearly average would put him as the tenth highest-paid center in the NFL.
For an average starter hitting the open market, that is fair value—and the salary cap rising trend will make it look smoother over the next few years.
Dalman is 26, and is entering his second contract in the NFL. Age and mileage being positive factors are attractive for teams looking for long-term solutions.
A similar profile is Josh Myers', a former second-round pick for the Green Bay Packers. But Myers is a flat out worse player. But his draft status and playing for what has been a better team makes the perception around him better, which makes his market projection reach $7.7 million per season.
Indianapolis Colts' Ryan Kelly will be 32 by Week 1, and his contract projection indicates a one-year, $10.1 million salary. Kelly might be better in pass block, which can be intriguing for contending teams, but it's hard to justify the difference in value, especially taking his age into consideration.
Evaluating age, projected contract, and what has been shown throughout the past few years, Drew Dalman clearly puts himself at a good free agency value—which is something difficult to find along the offensive line.
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