Per NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, the Atlanta Falcons are making a strong push for Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who is expected to be released when the new league year starts at 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 11.

If they do come to an agreement, it’s expected to be soon.

Tagovailoa’s time in Miami comes to an end after a down year that saw him get benched for the final three games of the season. That, along with a regime change from top to bottom, prompted the Dolphins to designate him as a post-June 1 cut and they’ll spread the $99 million dead cap hit out over the next two years.

The dead money aspect is what’s key, here, as it’s the catalyst behind the Falcons’ ability to make this push. Miami still has to pay Tagovailoa $53 million in 2026 thanks to certain elements of his contract, which allows the Falcons to sign him for the league veteran minimum of $1.345 million.

But, it also signals uncertainty regarding Michael Penix Jr.’s future with the Falcons. Even if they end up not signing Tagovailoa.

This proves the Falcons’ new regime is unsure of Michael Penix Jr.

Speaking of a new regime change, that’s exactly where the Falcons are with Kevin Stefanski, Ian Cunningham, and Matt Ryan. None of those guys where in the building when Penix Jr. was drafted, which immediately put his future in question when it comes to their long-term vision and whether or not he’s included.

Even if Tagovailoa doesn’t sign, let’s say Penix Jr. isn’t very good in 2026. The Falcons will surely start looking at other options, as he’ll be entering the final year of his deal, anyway (fifth-year option approval withstanding).

Stefanski and Cunningham have said positive things about Penix Jr., but haven’t completely committed to him by any means, as they shouldn’t. He’s not “their guy” and Stefanski knows how a bad fit at quarterback can tank any and all hopes for a franchise.

And speaking of fit, it’s another big driver behind the Falcons’ push.

Kevin Stefanski’s offense is timing-based, which Tagovailoa excels at

Stefanski’s offense, and the Falcons in general, are a great fit for Tagovailoa as A to Z Miami’s Kyle Crabbs explains below:

“Think about the best versions of Tua Tagovailoa we’ve seen. They’ve come with a strong supporting cast, a timing-based passing offense, and climate-controlled conditions.

The Falcons can offer all three. The line has several strong pieces, including Chris Lindstrom and Jake Matthews. Pass catchers Kyle Pitts, Drake London anchor the target share, while RB Bijan Robinson is one of the best backs in all of football. Head coach Kevin Stefanski runs a branch of a West Coast offense and Stefanski himself helped spur the drafting of Dillon Gabriel in the 2025 NFL Draft. Gabriel drew some comparisons to Tagovailoa for his left-handedness and his arm strength coming out of Oregon.

And then there’s the conditions: Atlanta plays indoors. Their division opponents are all south of the Mason-Dixon line, with Carolina looming as the threat furthest north. As the Falcons look to bridge the Michael Penix Jr. injury, Tagovailoa checks a lot of boxes short-term.”

Overall, it’s a no-risk, total-reward type situation. Much like Russell Wilson with the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2024 and what will be Kyler Murry in 2026, the Falcons are trying to obtain a talented, starting-level quarterback for the bare minimum that will either beat out or push Penix Jr. into a spot where he’s playing good, consistent football.

There’s absolutely zero reason for the Falcons to not make this move and it’ll be interesting to see how everything plays out if they do.