Falcons take advantage of stalled market to keep ascending star around for years to come
When the Cleveland Browns extended Denzel Ward for $20.1 million a year and the Green Bay Packers gave Jaire Alexander $21 million yearly average two offseasons ago, it looked like the cornerback market would explode. Surprisingly, though, it has stalled. The Atlanta Falcons were beneficiaries, securing a contract extension with AJ Terrell for four years […]
When the Cleveland Browns extended Denzel Ward for $20.1 million a year and the Green Bay Packers gave Jaire Alexander $21 million yearly average two offseasons ago, it looked like the cornerback market would explode. Surprisingly, though, it has stalled. The Atlanta Falcons were beneficiaries, securing a contract extension with AJ Terrell for four years and $81 million.
Terrell got more security than Ward and Alexander, with $65.8 million guaranteed at signing. But the total value shows an intriguing reality: Teams haven't valued cornerbacks that much.
This offseason, some good cornerbacks have signed new deals. But none of them became the highest-paid player at the position, giving a sense that all of them ended up being team-friendly contracts.
Jaylon Johnson signed with the Chicago Bears for $19 million APY, Tyson Campbell extended with the Jacksonville Jaguars averaging $19.125 million. Last year, Trevon Diggs had gotten $19.4 million a season from the Dallas Cowboys. Even L'Jarius Sneed, who had more leverage being traded from the Kansas City Chiefs, received $19.1 million a year from the Tennessee Titans.
Impressively enough, safety Antoine Winfield Jr. signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for $21.025 million per season, becoming the highest-paid defensive back in NFL history.
"Cornerback market stagnation and steady growth in the safety market are responsible for this unprecedented development," CBS contract analyst Joel Corry wrote back in July. "The top of the cornerback market has only increased by 5% since Jalen Ramsey became the NFL's first $20 million-per-year defensive back right before the 2020 regular season started."
Reasoning
With the evolution of how analytics impacts football management, there was also a growth in perceived value for positions that directly affect the passing game. Wide receivers and cornerbacks in particular have benefited from that after being treated as secondary or even tertiary positions because they were too far away from the trenches.
There is still a valid discussion about what's more important between pass rush and pass coverage, but only the fact that there is a discussion is an evolution for cornerbacks.
However, that hasn't and probably won't translate to contract value. And that's because the secondary is pretty much a weak-link system. If you get a top edge rusher with a top of the market contract, he alone can transform the defensive front. If a cornerback is elite, he obviously helps the defense, but the impact is limited if the rest of the unit is underwhelming.
With that in mind, teams have used more resources to acquire top pass rushers and tried to build the secondary without a true weak link.
Falcons' approach
Even though pass rushers are perceived as the most valuable pieces to a roster, the Atlanta Falcons have taken advantage of that to the other side. Last year, they signed safety Jessie Bates in free agency, and now they extended Terrell. The cornerback had a stellar season in 2021, his second year in the NFL, and has been good since.
Meanwhile, the investments in the outside linebacker group have been timid. The big bet is Matthew Judon, who was a market opportunity for a third-round pick — and because he agreed to play without a contract extension in place.
The approach makes sense considering head coach Raheem Morris' background is with defensive backs. The staff also has assistant head coach Jerry Gray and defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake with a DBs background.
The Falcons are zigging when the rest of the NFL is zagging. Time will tell us if the move will be effective.
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