The Ravens’ playoff probabilities continue to shift overwhelmingly in Baltimore’s favor as they seize their own destiny in the AFC North race

Well that was fast…

Kyle Crabbs — NFL National Writer
Add as preferred source on Google
Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

The Baltimore Ravens‘ Sunday victory against the Minnesota Vikings has only added more fuel to the fire that has been assumed since the team’s bye week. A run is coming. And a run is, indeed, here. The Ravens now sit at 4-5 on the season — just one game behind the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North standings with two games left against Pittsburgh remaining.

The Ravens, as of this moment, officially control their own destiny in the AFC North. Imagine saying that at 1-5. Yet that’s where we find ourselves, with the Ravens appearing to have pushed the right buttons on both sides of the ball to bring their season back to life.

Their 27-19 victory over the Minnesota Vikings? It’s pushed their playoff probabilities in one model to overwhelming favorites despite their record.

The Athletic’s 2025 NFL playoff model has Ravens favored at nearly 80% to win the AFC North

Nov 9, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) runs the ball as Minnesota Vikings cornerback Isaiah Rodgers (2) makes the tackle and running back Derrick Henry (22) looks on during the third quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Baltimore Ravens’ upcoming schedule

  • Week 11: at Cleveland Browns (2-7)
  • Week 12: versus New York Jets (2-7)
  • Week 13: versus Cincinnati Bengals (3-6)
  • Week 14: versus Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4)
  • Week 15: at Cincinnati Bengals (3-6)

Baltimore’s next three opponents are the Cleveland Browns (2-7), the New York Jets (2-7), and the Cincinnati Bengals (3-6). The Ravens must face Pittsburgh next, but at home, before a second matchup with Cincinnati. If the schedule sounds doable for Baltimore, it’s because it is. And The Athletic’s model currently is buying that the Ravens are going to take care of business.

After Sunday’s win against Minnesota and loss on Sunday Night Football for the Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore is listed on The Athletic’s projection model with a 78% chance to make the postseason. Their AFC North odds? 76%.

This may feel aggressive, but it comes back to the math of head-to-head matchups with Pittsburgh looming and the Steelers looking, well, old. They’re old at quarterback. They’re older in the front seven. They’re older in the secondary. And, alarmingly for the Steelers, they look like it at the halfway point of the season. If the Ravens stay healthy, they SHOULD be considered the favorites. There’s a lot of ballgame left — but Baltimore’s positioning now only further fuels the expectation that they storm all the way back.

Related Articles