The NFL is supposed to be built on parity. Teams that finish poorly get top pick in the draft to get better. Every team has the same salary cap and schedules are created to keep weak teams from playing all the strong teams every year.

It is because of this parity, that we have not seen a division where all four teams finish above .500 in a single season. We came close a few times including 2002 when the AFC West had two teams finish at .500 and the AFC East had three teams at 9-7 and one (the Bills) at 8-8.

Prior to the 2021 season, the NFL expanded its regular season from a 17 week/16 games schedule to an 18 week/17 game schedule. Before this, all four teams would have to finish at least 9-7 to be above .500. Now with the extra game, it is more likely for all four teams to get that one extra win with an odd number of games.

We almost got our first dose of an entire division finishing above .500 last season with NFC East, but a tie between the Giants and Commanders in week 13 left Washington with an 8-8-1 record keeping them at .500 for the season.

The idea of one entire division having four teams that are good enough to win their out of conference games and be good enough to essentially split their intra-divisional matchups is not so crazy for the 2023 season. One division that might be up to the task is the AFC North.

The AFC North Can All Finish Above .500

Cincinnati Bengals

This one is easy. The Bengals are one of the top three teams in the AFC along with the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs. They finished 12-4 last season on their way to the AFC North crown and the playoffs. Most indications are for the Bengals to have a similar season this year and Vegas has the win total for Bengals set at 11.5.

Cincinnati will bring back almost every member of the starting offense that ranked fifth last year, including the triumvirate of Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins.

The team’s only significant change on the offensive side of the ball will come at tackle, where Orlando Brown Jr.’s presence will shift Jonah Williams to the right side. An upgrade for both positions.

On defense the Bengals will need to get more pressure on the quarterback as they were terrible last season finishing with only 30 sacks on the year which was good enough for the fourth-lowest total in the NFL. The Bengals are hoping that first round pick Myles Murphy solves that problem.

For the Bengals, barring injury, the question isn’t whether or not they finish above .500 or make the playoffs, but if they win the Super Bowl.

Baltimore Ravens

The Lamar Jackson contract drama is over and the Lamar Jackson passing era can begin, right? After signing a lucrative deal this offseason to stay with Ravens, Lamar will be put to the test.

Let’s face it, this whole team revolves around Jackson. With him the Ravens are almost assured to be above .500 and without him they are likely picking in the top 10 of next year’s draft.

With Jackson’s play style, the criticism comes with how often he is injured. Jackson has failed to be healthy enough for the most crucial part of the NFL season for the Ravens in the last two years, and it’s derailed Baltimore’s seasons.

The Ravens decided this off season to let OC Greg Roman go and bring in Todd Monken. With Monken coming in to replace Roman, Baltimore’s offense will incorporate a more spread-style system. This means more passing and more pressure on Jackson to perform with his arm and not just his legs.

The Ravens did get some help for Jackson in the passing game bringing in Nelson Agholor and Odell Beckham Jr in free agency and drafting Zay Flowers in the first round out of Boston College.

The Baltimore defense won’t be the best in the league this season, but the Ravens are always a tough matchup thanks to great coaching and player development.

The secondary has several new pieces that will need to fit in quickly, but the pass rush should get an added boost from edge rusher David Ojabo, who was a supreme talent from the 2022 draft but played just 23 snaps his rookie year due to a torn Achilles suffered during his pro day workout.

It is hard to see the Ravens falling below .500 if Lamar Jackson stays healthy, but it would be hard to expect him to quickly thrive in a pass heavy offense. Vegas has the Ravens win total set at anywhere from 9.5 to 10.5 which is right about where they should be.

Pittsburgh Steelers

How could we possibly bet against a coach in Mike Tomlin who has coached for 16 years in Pittsburgh and never finished below .500? The fact is Mike Tomlin is the reason this team finished 9-8 last season while transitioning to a rookie QB. He is easily one of the best coaches in the game.

That being said, at some point talent has to win out. Does this team have enough of it to go over the Vegas line of 8.5 wins in 2023?

The Steelers had a glaring need on the offensive line in 2022 in front of QB Kenny Pickett and workhorse running back Najee Harris. The Steelers addressed their concerns in free agency bringing in Nate Herbig who played well in spot duty for the New York Jets and stud offensive guard Isaac Seumalo from the Philadelphia Eagles.

They didn’t stop improving the o-line there either. They traded up in the first round to take Georiga tackle Broderick Jones.

To help their sophomore QB in his development the Steelers also traded for wide receiver Allen Robinson from the Los Angeles Rams after he had a down season out in L.A. Robinson combined with Diontae Johnson and George Pickens should make defenses think twice about stacking the box.

On defense, Pittsburgh lost its best cornerback, Cam Sutton, to the Detriot Lions in free agency, but they’ve added Patrick Peterson and Chandon Sullivan as FA signings, while Steelers legacy player Joey Porter Jr. should be an immediate starter for his father’s old team.

In the end, like most teams, this season will come down to the quarterback for the Steelers. Kenny Pickett got off to a rough start but played really well down the stretch in 2022. The Steelers won six of their last seven games and Pickett threw four touchdowns in that stretch to only one interception.

If Pickett can take another step forward in his second season and the tenacious Steelers defense can do it’s thing, there is no reason for Mike Tomlin to not be able to extend his streak to 17 season without going below .500.

Cleveland Browns

The Cleveland Browns might be the biggest question mark in the AFC this season. There is a lot of talent on the roster on both sides of the ball, but can they finally do something with it after years of failure. Most Las Vegas sportsbooks have the Browns win total at 9.5.

On defense, the Browns have upgraded their pass rush, pairing Myles Garrett with free agent Za’Darius Smith. Smith was efficient last year, and he could do it again, giving Cleveland a great foundation to build their defense around.

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah returns from injury to anchor a young secondary which will be tested often in the AFC.

Let’s face it, the biggest question mark for the Browns will be on the offensive side of the ball, namely with Deshaun Watson at quarterback.

Watson was signed as if he is an elite quarterback last season when in reality, no elite level quarterback would lead his team to a 4-12 record which is what he did his last year with the Houston Texans.

Since leading the Texans to 4-12 and working his way out of Houston in 2020, Watson has played a grand total of six games for the Browns where he has looked mediocre at best.

With new weapon Elijah Moore from the New York Jets to pair with Amari Cooper and Nick Chubb, Watson will look to turn this franchise around to improve on their 7-10 record from last year and make a playoff run.

Most of the pressure will be on Watson this season and it will be interesting to see if he can stand the weight of it.

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While most Vegas sports books have every team in the AFC North with a win total over over 8.5 wins, it appears that oddsmakers believe in the idea of the entire division going over .500.  With the North crossing over with the weak AFC South and NFC West, as long as they remain healthy, there is no reason to think they can't be the first division to ever finish above .500.

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