Exploiting Drake Maye’s weakness and containing his strength highlights top storylines to watch for Bucs defense vs. Patriots
There’s a clear path to stopping Maye and the Patriots offense. Can the Bucs make it happen?
Nothing is scarier for an opposing defense than a talented quarterback on a hot streak and that’s exactly what the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are facing in New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye.
The Bucs know the key to beating the Patriots this week is slowing down the second-year signal-caller. At the same time, however, there’s more to New England’s offense than Maye and Todd Bowles and Co. know they’re going to have to get the job done in those areas, as well.
Vague enough for you? Good, because A to Z NFL’s Rob Gregson is back again to help me break down the top storylines facing the Bucs defense heading into this game.
So, let’s stop wasting time and dive right in.
Bucs’ pass rush is the key to stopping Drake Maye
Evan: They say sacks come in bunches and that’s certainly been the case with the Bucs defense since Week 6. Todd Bowles’ crews has racked up 15.0 sacks over the last three games after generating only 10 during the first five matchups of the year.
Yaya Diaby and Co. have an excellent chance to keep things moving in the right direction this week. Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has been sacked 34 times, which is second-most in the NFL, and pressured at the fifth-highest rate, per Next Gen Stats.
A big reason why his sack numbers are so high is because he creates a lot of his own problems. He has one of the highest pressure-to-sack rates and owns one of the highest pressure responsibility rates in the NFL. He can certainly use his legs to get out situations and the Bucs are going to have to be aware of that, but Bowles’ ability to create chaos and confusion both pre- and post-snap could really set Maye up for some problems. At the same time, he can make somethings happen under pressure and against the blitz, so the Bucs need to be very mindful of that aspect of his game, as well.
Drake Maye’s numbers under pressure
- Touchdowns to interceptions: 3/1
- QB rating: 90.2 (4th)
- 1st downs: 35 (t-3rd)
- Adjusted completion percentage: 74.5% (t-3rd)
Rob: Drake Maye has been the best QB of the 2024 class, by far this season. His growth from year one to two, even from earlier in the season until now, has been impressive. However, if you go back to Week 1 against the Raiders, and Week 3 against the Steelers, you see a QB who makes inexpereineced mistakes. He is still developing a feel for pressure, and when he gets off his spot, he can be prone to bad misses or even fumbles. It’s something (as Evan mentioned), that Bowles can exploit.
Bucs have to contain the deep ball, too
Evan: Maye’s deep ball is the best part of his game and boy, can he sling it.
He’s tied for the league lead in completion percentage (68.2%) and QB rating (150.6) when throwing the ball 20+ air yards downfield. His five touchdowns on such throws are tied for fourth-most and his 1.68 EPA per dropback also leads the NFL, per Next Gen.
Kayshon Boutte has been the Pats’ main deep threat. He’s hauled in six receptions of 20+ air yards that went for 174 yards and four touchdowns so far this year. DeMario Douglas has done his fair share of damage, as well, with three receptions for 155 yards and a touchdown, so the Bucs are going to have to make sure they keep those two in front of them in order to keep a lid on the Patriots’ deep pass attack.
If they don’t, not only will Maye make plays downfield, but it’ll open up the running game, as well. And that’s the last thing the Bucs want is for the Patriots offense to fire on all cylinders.
Rob: This is where the game will be won or lost for the Bucs, in my opinion. As Evan pointed out, the numbers are downright guady when Maye loads up for the deep ball. His arm strength and ball location really shine. The counter: pressure. As mentioned above, the Bucs have the advantage in the trenches, or at least on paper when accounting for their blitz packages. The fastest way to make sure a team can’t throw deep is to rush the passer effectively. Make it a dink and dunk game, and Tampa Bay has a real chance.
Bucs’ run defense has to live up to its reputation
Evan: This is definitely a game where the Bucs have to keep the Patriots one-dimensional. Maye has taken a huge step in Year 2, but he’s still only in Year 2. Meaning, the Bucs need to make it as hard as possible for him to have success and winning half that battle is taking out the run game.
The Patriots don’t have the NFL’s best run game by any means, but they stick with it unless it’s an illogical concept. They run the ball 47.4% of the time, which is fourth-most in the NFL. The Bucs have to respect the run as long as the Patriots are in the game, score-wise.
It’s not an explosive run game, by any means, but it’s a persistent one. The Bucs will also have to account for Maye’s legs, as he has nine runs of 10+ yards on the year, already. Regardless, it’ll go a long way if Vita Vea and the rest of the front seven does its job.
Rob: Not only does New England’s run game lack efficiency, but they are one snap away from handing the ball over every time they touch it. We touched on some of Maye’s fumbles, but the Patriots’ starting RB, Rhamondre Stevenson, leads the league in fumbles among RBs. Oh, and he’s questionable by the way, with rookie TreVeyon Henderson waiting in the wings. Keeping the Pats one-dimensional and poking at the ball when they do run will be critical for the Bucs.
Preventing the tight ends from making plays in the passing game
Evan: Yes, Maye has a big arm and he’s formed a solid connection with Stefon Diggs, but the Bucs have to be very conscientious of both Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper.
Neither player are considered All-Pros or game-wreckers by any means. But, Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels factors them into the passing game pretty heavily. Only a handful of teams target tight ends in the passing game on a more consistent basis and it’s led to Henry’s stat line consisting of the second-most receptions and receiving touchdowns, as well as the third-most receiving yards on the Pats offense.
The Patriots also use two tight end sets (12 personnel) a lot and they pass the ball about half the time out of the grouping. Meaning, both Henry and Hooper are on the field quite often, but it’s a coin flip when it comes to target opportunities. The Patriots are pretty effective when deploying 12 personnel, so the Bucs are going to have to make sure they’re reading their keys and communicating to ensure everyone is in the right spot once the ball is snapped.
Rob: So if the Bucs keep everything in front of them and make the Patriots one-dimensional, surely they win the game, right? Not quite, because as Evan touched on, the Pats will play 12 personnel, and even when in 11 personnel, they are unafraid to target Hunter Henry. He tormented the middle of the Pittsburgh’s defense, which employs two coverage backers by the way. Henry went for 90 yards on eight catches and two touchdowns back in Week 3. It’s going to be a three way approach for Tampa on Sunday.
This article was originally published on A to Z Tampa Bay as Exploiting Drake Maye’s weakness and containing his strength highlight top storylines to watch for Bucs defense vs. Patriots.
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