Bills have the blueprint to take down the Broncos in the divisional round and it’s a lot simpler than some may believe
The Bills have a tough task ahead of them, but not an impossible one.
The NFL playoffs are such a magical time of the year; some could argue that it’s even better than Christmas. The gifts that fans got during the wild card round, with such close matchups between exceptional teams, are more than enough reason to be excited about Round 2.
An interesting statistic showcases how Buffalo has the blueprint for victory, and it’s a lot easier than some may think. Score more points than your opponent, okay, I’m joking. In reality, quarterback Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos are 1-8 against winning teams that score more than 17 points. Buffalo averages 28.2 points per game and is 13-0 when they score 23 points or more. So, the blueprint to beating the Broncos? Score at least 23 points in the contest.
So exactly how will Buffalo be able to succeed on offense against a stout Broncos defense? Denver boasts a very talented but sometimes overly aggressive defense that routinely sells out to get off the field on third down and tightens up in the red zone, making points hard to come by. However, that aggressiveness opens the door for Buffalo to exploit them.
Advanced analytics show Denver is vulnerable when facing 11, 12, and 13 personnel groupings, giving up roughly five yards per attempt in those looks. While the Broncos are efficient at defending perimeter wide receivers, they struggle in the middle of the field. That bodes well for the Bills, as Khalil Shakir and tight end Dalton Kincaid could be in line for productive days. Denver ranks 25th in the NFL in DVOA against slot receivers and 18th in yardage allowed to tight ends, surrendering roughly 60 yards per game.
If Allen attacks the linebackers early and often, and lets James Cook cook, Buffalo should be able to stress the defense and move the ball consistently.
Buffalo will be down several important pieces on offense for Saturday
Quarterback Josh Allen can do it all, and once again, he’ll be asked to do more with less as three of his top options at receiver are out for the season. In the span of a week, the team lost Josh Palmer, Gabe Davis, and Tyrell Shavers. One exciting update is that it looks like the team will be getting back wide receiver Curtis Samuel for the contest, a much-needed body at a depleted position.
With all of that being said, it’s not going to be the easiest task to score 23 points, but it’s more than doable with No. 17 at quarterback. That, and running back James Cook should be featured more heavily in the contest. Cook was essentially removed from the Jaguars game, held to only 46 yards on 15 carries, which should change on Saturday.
If there’s one constant in January, it’s that when Josh Allen is under center, Buffalo always has a fighter’s chance. The margin for error will be tight, the weapons will be limited, and the road environment won’t be forgiving, but the formula is still there. Control the game with Cook, let Allen elevate what’s left around him, and find a way to cross that 23-point threshold. If the Bills do that, history suggests they won’t be the team going home early.
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