Bills fans want more from Dalton Kincaid, but need to understand the context of two weird games
The Buffalo Bills are 2-0, are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, are about to have a home primetime game on Monday Night Football, and they just kicked the living crap out of their division rival Miami Dolphins.So what's there to complain about?Nothing really, but the offense is definitely going about things in […]
The Buffalo Bills are 2-0, are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, are about to have a home primetime game on Monday Night Football, and they just kicked the living crap out of their division rival Miami Dolphins.
So what's there to complain about?
Nothing really, but the offense is definitely going about things in an interesting way.
In the preseason, all the talk coming out of training camp was about how Dalton Kincaid was going to be the engine that drives the Bills offense. A massive breakout was loading with the production from his rookie season, and now without Stefon Diggs, the opportunities and available targets were supposed to be plentiful.
Through two games, Kincaid has a combined five catches for 44 receiving yards and zero touchdowns. Let's talk about why.
Firstly, let's go back to Week 1. The Bills played an Arizona Cardinals team that controlled the clock in the first half, limiting the Bills to only three offensive possessions. In total, Buffalo ran 61 offensive plays, down slightly from last year's average of 66.3. Josh Allen also attempted only 23 passes, significantly lower than his average of 34.06 pass attempts per game from last season.
The Cardinals also took Kincaid completely out of the picture on multiple occasions, and Allen did what a smart quarterback does in those situations – don't force it.
The Cardinals coaching staff apparently heard the reports about Kincaid being the No. 1 option, and they did everything that they could to eliminate him. They succeeded, holding him to only one catch for 11 yards.
Okay, so – limited attempts and a defensive game plan that wiped out Kincaid. Noted. What about the second game?
Do you remember what happened in the second game? Josh Allen essentially wasn't needed.
The Bills came out fast and picked off Tua Tagovailoa three times in the first half, including a pick six. James Cook had a receiving touchdown and a rushing touchdown in the first half, then broke the game wide open with a 49-yard rushing touchdown on their first offensive play of the second half.
Especially after the Tagovailoa concussion, Allen and the Bills didn't have to do much of anything. They took their foot off the gas and coasted to a dominant 31-10 win. Allen only attempted 19 passes.
Kincaid was involved, just not down the field. They were drawing up manufactured touches to their athletic tight end, consistently targeting him around the line of scrimmage. He finished with four catches on four targets for 33 yards, with an odd ADOT of -2.0 yards.
Here's a statistical anomaly for you – Kincaid currently has 44 receiving yards on the season, and has 47 yards after the catch.
Here are all five of his catches so far this season:
It's been a weird two weeks for Kincaid, and in a sense, it's been a weird two weeks for the Bills.
That doesn't mean there's any reason to panic. Buffalo is playing winning football with one of the most poised and efficient offenses in the league, and Allen and his receiving threats haven't been asked to do much. There will be times where they will be needed, but so far, it hasn't been the case.
It's not that Kincaid has been bad. The passing game just hasn't been needed through two weeks.
Follow along all season for all the latest Buffalo Bills news. You can also find me on X @JonHelmkamp.
