Weird stat shows Buffalo Bills win less when Josh Allen does more and it shouldn't be that way
When Bills' quarterback Josh Allen decides to take over a game, it seems like the only thing that can stop him is his own team. That was certainly the case on Sunday. The quarterback threw for three touchdowns, ran for three more, put up over 400 total yards, didn't take a sack, and didn't commit […]
When Bills' quarterback Josh Allen decides to take over a game, it seems like the only thing that can stop him is his own team. That was certainly the case on Sunday. The quarterback threw for three touchdowns, ran for three more, put up over 400 total yards, didn't take a sack, and didn't commit a turnover.
And yet Buffalo still lost.
Zooming out, there's some important context and an interesting trend that needs to be talked about more. When Josh Allen rushes for 80+ yards, the Bills have a starkly losing record, both in the regular season and in the playoffs.
When Allen rushed for 80+ yards, the Bills are 3-7 in the regular season and 0-2 in the playoffs. Lowering the bar when looking at the playoffs, the Bills are 2-4 when Allen rushes for 60+ yards, and 3-1 when he rushes for less. You'd think when Allen does more, it would be better for the Bills, but apparently that's not the case.
Having watched a lot of Allen, here's my take on it. This is not causation, where "if Josh Allen runs, the Bills tend to lose." This is "Josh Allen does more when it's needed," at least recently as he has grown in the league.
We haven't seen Allen have to play hero ball this season. We haven't seen the Bills finding themselves in a trailing position like they were on Sunday. We haven't seen the defense fail to generate a single turnover or sack in a game, which they failed to do against the Rams. We also haven't seen the running backs struggle to get going like they did, with James Cook taking six carries for 20 yards, and no other running back seeing a carry.
This wasn't Allen doing too much. This was Allen deciding to do what needed to be done because he simply had no other choice. The Bills were in catch-up mode the entire game with a defense that couldn't stop the Rams if their lives depended on it.
The Bills are at their best when Allen doesn't have to have absurd performances, but as he showed on Sunday, he's willing to do so if the time calls for it.
Follow along all year for more Buffalo Bills coverage on A to Z Sports. You can find me on Bluesky @jonhelmkamp.bsky.social, and make sure to follow our main page @AtoZSports.bsky.social for all the latest news.
