ESPN makes a bold prediction for Buffalo that won't be popular with Bills Mafia
ESPN made some bold predictions for trades/free agent moves this week and they made a suggestion for the Buffalo Bills that likely won't go over well with Bills Mafia. Aaron Schatz of ESPN.com thinks the Bills should trade wide receiver Stefon Diggs this offseason. Schatz thinks Diggs, who just turned 30, is clearly declining and […]
ESPN made some bold predictions for trades/free agent moves this week and they made a suggestion for the Buffalo Bills that likely won't go over well with Bills Mafia.
Aaron Schatz of ESPN.com thinks the Bills should trade wide receiver Stefon Diggs this offseason.
Schatz thinks Diggs, who just turned 30, is clearly declining and may no longer be a true WR1 in Buffalo's offense.
From ESPN: Diggs' 2023 production declined from an average of 89 to 70 yards per game. In advanced stats, he dropped from third to 45th in receiving DVOA among qualified receivers (50 or more targets). Particularly notable was a drop in the average depth of target from 11.2 yards to 10.3 yards. He was still drawing targets like a No. 1 receiver, but he was getting them on shorter routes and doing less with them.
An even bigger warning sign might be his decline in the second half of the season. In Weeks 1-9, Diggs had 14% DVOA with a 72% catch rate and an average depth of target of 11.3 yards. From Week 10 onward, Diggs had minus-21% DVOA with a 59% catch rate but an average depth of target of just 9.7 yards. Usually, shorter passes mean a higher catch rate. Not in Diggs' case and not since the start of November.
The metrics don't lie. It seems clear that Diggs isn't quite the same wide receiver that he was during his first three seasons with the Bills. But he's still one of the best receivers in the NFL. And he still put up 107 receptions for 1,183 yards and eight touchdowns in 2023. It was be foolish to think that Buffalo can just plug-n-play when it comes to Diggs' role on the team.
Also, trading Diggs this offseason just doesn't make much financial sense. The Bills definitely can't trade him before June 1, otherwise they'd face a $31 million dead cap hit and they'd lose $3.2 million in salary cap space for the 2024 season.
A post June 1 trade isn't really wise, either. Trading Diggs after June 1 would save the Bills $19 million in cap space in 2024, but the team would face a significant dead cap hit of $22 million in 2025.
The Bills just need to stay the course with Diggs in 2024. Buffalo can always get out of his contract after the 2024 season with less of an impact on their salary cap situation.
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