The Buffalo Bills have to play the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 14 and usual, the game has a lot at stake and it will play a big role in the final outcome of the 2023 season.

This isn't the typical offensive powerhouse matchup that we've grown accustomed to, however. Since Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes entered the picture, both teams have combined to score an average of 57 points per game over their five matchups. This year, the O/U opened up at 47.5 across most books, which is obviously almost 10 points less than what the teams usually combine to score.

This year, the Chiefs defense has carried the team as one of the NFL's top units. Steve Spagnuolo's defense has playmakers at all three levels and he's one of the best defensive minds in the game. It's all melded into a defense that allows just 17.3 points per game – the third-lowest mark in the league.

It's like a divisional matchup, essentially

The Chiefs defense is already a tough enough test, but things will tougher than usual considering Sunday's game represents the sixth matchup between Spagnuolo and Allen since 2020. 

That familiarity gives the Chiefs an advantage over Allen and the Bills offense. It's going to make for a rollercoaster ride that should provide big plays on both sides of the ball. In terms of defensive coordinators, only Jeff Ulbrich and the combo of Steve Belichick/Jerod Mayo have prepped for and faced off against Allen that many times. You know, the guys coaching for the New York Jets and New England Patriots.

"They're playing at a very high level [and] it's a defensive coordinator that knows me pretty well," Allen told reporters earlier in the week. "They've been switching it up just a little bit this year and doing some some different things, but I think they're playing at an extremely high level. They're one of the better defensive groups in the league."

Let's not get it twisted, though. Spagnuolo's familiarity with Allen also works in reverse: Allen knows Spags well, too. He's especially adept when it comes to the Chiefs DC's tendency to blitz and get aggressive. As we saw last week against the Green Bay Packers, that can leave the unit vulnerable to the big play, at times.

So, the Bills need to make sure they hit their marks when they get the chance.

"That's how you have to look at it, is, it is an opportunity," said Allen. "If they're bringing one or two, that means they're taking them from where your receivers are going to be. So that allows you to have some opportunities, whether it's downfield or or some short catch-and-run situations. So, you know, that's where I got to be good at and make sure that I find my answers and hit our guys where they can catch and run."

Bills offensive line holds the key to the matchup

The Chiefs defense is anchored by the defensive line consisting of All-Pro Chris Jones, the underrated Derrick Nnadi, and then a stable of defensive ends in George Karlaftis, Charles Omenihu, Felix Anudike-Uzomah, and Mike Danna.

Jones is easily the most disruptive player and he's a top-3 defensive lineman, all-around. He's a game-wrecker at the 3T position and can even flex outside when needed. The Bills offensive line -especially the interior- has to find a way to not shut down, but at least slow down, the Chiefs defensive line or else it's going to be a long day on offense.

"I think their d-line's playing at a very high level, I think their cornerbacks have been playing very well," said Allen. "They're a physical group, they like to get up and jam and press, you know, they got some long speed there too. But anytime you got a d-line that can go disrupt the quarterback, it makes a lot easier for the back end. They're bringing pressures from from different areas on the field, they'll bring a little bit of zero, basically, around the logo, in, you know, gotta-have-it situations.

"So, we got to be prepared. We got to be prepared for whatever they can bring [like] a good pressure package and make sure that I'm IDing things correctly, and making sure if I don't, finding my answers as quickly as possible."

The trio that makes up the Bills interior offensive line is a pretty solid pass-blocking group, but their run blocking leaves a bit to be desired. Mitch Morse, Connor McGovern, and rookie O'Cyrus Torrence have done a pretty good job this year, overall. 

But their going to need to those guys to be on point this week. They've only allowed a combined 3.0 sacks over a combined 1,543 pass blocking snaps, per PFF. That's obviously a very impressive 1.9% allowed sack rate, but the group has combined for 12 penalties. As good as Allen has been, the Bills can't afford to get behind schedule because of their own mistakes. If they do that then their chances of winning this game get that much smaller.

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The Bills can win this game, but they're going to have to protect Allen, establish some sort of ground game and then they're going to have to omit the dumb mistakes that have cost them crucial games this year. And that includes the coaching staff (mainly McDermott) on the sidelines, too.

The beginning of the end of the Bills regular season starts today and what happens in Arrowhead Stadium is bound to make or break the month of December.