Buffalo Bills Playoff Picture: Bills’ difficult road ahead will define whether the team is truly a contender
The Bills have plenty of work to do for the remainder of the NFL season.
The Buffalo Bills’ loss to the Miami Dolphins put the team even further in the hole in the AFC East. Once again, the New England Patriots are back, or appear to be back, with quarterback Drake Maye ascending to one of the best quarterbacks in the league. With Maye’s ascension, the Patriots sit at the top of the AFC East, making life difficult for Buffalo and its playoff hopes.
Where the Buffalo Bills stand in the playoff picture
AFC Playoff Picture
- 1st: Indianapolis Colts (8-2)
- 2nd: Denver Broncos (8-2)
- 3rd: New England Patriots (8-2)
- 4th: Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4)
- 5th: Los Angeles Chargers (7-3)
- 6th: Buffalo Bills (6-3)
- 7th: Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4)
Buffalo losing and the other teams in the AFC East winning their Week 10 matchups makes things harder for the team moving forward. Let’s take a look at the remaining games for Buffalo and what it could mean for potential playoff seeding. I know it’s only November, but it’s time to start looking at the bigger picture.
Week 11: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 12: @ Houston Texans
Week 13: @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 14: vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Week 15: @ New England Patriots
Week 16: @ Cleveland Browns
Week 17: vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Week 18: vs. New York Jets
According to the New York Times playoff machine, the Bills currently have an 87% chance to make the playoffs, a 14% chance to win the division, a 6% chance to have a first-round bye, and a 5% chance to win the Super Bowl.
The easiest path to the playoffs and earning the No. 1 seed would be to simply win every game on the schedule. With that, the Bills would have nearly a 100% chance of making the playoffs with an 80% chance of securing the one seed. But winning every game doesn’t seem likely, so just how many games do the Bills have to win?
Let’s just live in fantasyland for a second and say the Bills lose against the Bucs, Bengals, Patriots, and Eagles but win their matchups against the Texans, Steelers, Browns, and Jets. In this scenario, Buffalo would need to go 4-4 over their last eight games, which would give them a 10-7 record with a 97% chance of making the playoffs as a wild card, with a 3% chance of missing out entirely.
However, if the Bills could wind up going 5-3 over that span, the team would have more than a 99% chance of making the postseason as the wild card. The more wins the team gets, the better its chances to host a wild-card game, or potentially even grab the one seed.
At the end of the day, Buffalo still controls its own destiny. But the margin for error is shrinking fast, and every game from here on out feels like a must-win for a team trying to stay in the thick of the AFC race.
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