Bills’ playoff push became that much easier after Week 14 win, here’s how they get into the dance
The Buffalo Bills control their destiny when it comes to the playoffs after beating the Bengals in Week 14.
The Buffalo Bills took care of business against the Cincinnati Bengals, improving their odds to make the postseason in a snowy, instant classic of a game that saw Buffalo mount an epic fourth-quarter comeback. Quarterback Josh Allen once again put on his Superman cape and led the team to victory.
Of course, the biggest storyline facing the team, and all teams in the NFL, is the playoff push. Buffalo improved their odds to make the postseason with a win on Sunday, and is sitting in really great shape to make the postseason.
Some big names could be out of the postseason in 2025
There’s a world where Allen and the Bills make the postseason while quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, Joe Burrow and the Bengals, and Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs all are on the outside looking in.
If the playoffs were to start today, Buffalo would be looking at the No. 5 seed and taking on the No. 4 seed Pittsburgh Steelers, in Pittsburgh. The Denver Broncos are currently sitting at the No. 1 seed, with the New England Patriots coming in at No. 2, the Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 3, the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 6, and the Houston Texans at No. 7.
Honestly, it would be the most ideal playoff run for Buffalo if things were to stay the same.
How the Bills can lock up a spot in the 2025 NFL playoffs
The New York Times playoff calculator makes things easy to see what Buffalo has to do to lock up their spot in the postseason, and it’s really easy. In fact, Buffalo has a shot at hosting a wild-card game by winning the division, with some bad luck by the Patriots down the stretch.
If Buffalo were to win out, they would have an above 99% chance to make the postseason, with a 20% chance of having the No. 1 seed, and a 22% chance of hosting a wild-card round game. Though it’s most likely Buffalo will land in a wild-card spot at 58%.
Realistic scenario for the Buffalo Bills
Perhaps the more realistic approach, rather than winning out the rest of their games, is to go 3-1 down the stretch. Even that seems a bit extreme, but let’s visit that for a second. Buffalo has games against the Patriots, Cleveland Browns, Philadelphia Eagles, and New York Jets remaining. If Buffalo can get three wins out of the final four games, they’ll be sitting pretty for a playoff position.
Let’s say for this scenario that Buffalo loses only to the Eagles, which puts their chances of making the playoffs at 99%, with a 3% chance of having the No. 1 seed, a 20% chance of hosting a wild card game, and a 77% chance of being a wild card team.
What makes it even more exciting is that the Bills don’t have to win three games to get in; according to the calculator, they can lose two games and still have a decent chance of the postseason. If Buffalo were to lose to the Patriots and the Eagles, they would still have a 99% chance of making the postseason, though their hopes of winning the division or being anything other than a wild card team would get thrown out the window.
Things get interesting if the Bills lose more than 2 games
If Buffalo were to lose three of their last four, the sky wouldn’t be falling, and the world wouldn’t be on fire, but Buffalo might need some help to make the postseason. Still, with losses to the Patriots, Browns, and Eagles, Buffalo would still be sitting pretty with an 88% chance of making the postseason, all as a wild card team.
Now, the nightmare scenario. Let’s play out if the Bills were to lose all remaining games. This is, obviously, the worst statistical chance for Buffalo. If they lose out on all the remaining games, there would still be a chance, but a small one at that. Buffalo would only have a 23% chance to make the postseason if it loses the remainder of their games.
For Buffalo, it’s simple: win, and you’re in. Buffalo is coming off a thrilling victory with a huge game against a divisional rival coming up next. The team simply has to find a way to pull out two wins in their last four games for almost a guaranteed chance of making the postseason. Any additional losses after two, things start to get dicey for Buffalo.
At the end of the day, like we’ve said countless times, Buffalo controls its own destiny. The path is straightforward, the stakes are massive, and the opportunity is right in front of them. If the Bills handle business over the next month, the postseason won’t just be within reach; it’ll be expected.
Buffalo Bills News
Josh Allen taught Bengals a hard lesson that will be tough to forget during historical performance in Week 14
Allen reminded the Bengals, as well as the rest of the NFL, why he’s the reigning MVP. And he made history while doing so.
