How the Panthers still can mathematically make the playoffs

Losing out doesn't do the Carolina Panthers any favors.  With the Chicago Bears owning the Panthers pick, it is in Carolina's best interest to figure out a way to make the playoffs. The good news is, at least mathematically, the Panthers still have a chance.  If you look at the mathematical playoff chances, the Panthers […]

Ian Kayanja
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Nov 9, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) passes the ball against the Chicago Bears during the first quarter at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports
Feature image via Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports

Losing out doesn't do the Carolina Panthers any favors. 

With the Chicago Bears owning the Panthers pick, it is in Carolina's best interest to figure out a way to make the playoffs. The good news is, at least mathematically, the Panthers still have a chance. 

If you look at the mathematical playoff chances, the Panthers sit at less than one percent, according to projections. 

Rightfully so. The Panthers hold a 1-8 record and lost a complete dud on Thursday Night Football to the Bears. 

But what happens to those projections if the Panthers win out? Let's check and see (for this article, we are using the New York Times' projection model, which can be found here.). 

Panthers playoff chances if they win out

The Panthers' remaining schedule won't make winning out an easy feat. 

In Week 11, Carolina takes on the Dallas Cowboys. The rest of the schedule is as follows: 

  • Week 12 at Tennessee Titans 
  • Week 13 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
  • Week 14 at New Orleans Saints
  • Week 15 Atlanta Falcons
  • Week 16 Green Bay Packers 
  • Week 17 at Jacksonville Jaguars 
  • Week 18 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If the Panthers go 8-0 over their remaining games, the team will finish with a 9-8 record and based on the projects, would be slotted to have an 88% chance of making the playoffs. 

The projects also give the Panthers a 75% chance to host a Wild Card game. There remains a 12% chance that the Panthers will win out and still miss January's big dance. 

Live look at Panthers playoff chances via the New York Times. The panthers projected an 88% chance to make the playoffs if win out the rest of the games.
Live look at Panthers playoff chances via the New York Times. The Panthers projected an 88% chance to make the playoffs if win out the rest of the games.New York Times playoff odds projection (NYTimes.com)

Now, the realistic chances of the Panthers winning out and making the playoffs are minuscule. But certain outcomes would boost the Panthers' odds. 

In Week 12, the LA Rams beating the Seahawks is one of those games, as with the San Francisco 49ers beating the Buccaneers. 

In Week 13, the 49ers beating the Seahawks while the Falcons beat the Saints would also be a big help to the Panthers' cause. 

If things bounce the Panthers' way while the team handles its business, it could go down as one of the greatest midseason turnarounds in NFL history. Alas, the game isn't played on projection machines — it is played on the field. 

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