Oddsmakers are against the Joe Burrow Bengals like never before at this point in the season

The Bengals are being counted out big time against the Bills.

John Sheeran Cincinnati Bengals News Writer
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Nov 27, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) practices before the game at M&T Bank Stadium.
© Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

It’s December, which of course means the Cincinnati Bengals are set to play their best football. Cincinnati is 15-7 since 2020 in the final month of the calendar, and Joe Burrow is 10-3 in those games. He’ll need to add five more wins for the Bengals to have a good shot at making the postseason for the first time since 2022.

The first step is taking down the Buffalo Bills, and despite upsetting the Baltimore Ravens on Thanksgiving night, Cincinnati isn’t getting any benefit of the doubt from oddsmakers this week.

Bengals open as underdogs against Bills

The Bengals open as 6-point underdogs to the Bills this week. It’s the sixth time Cincinnati has been underdogs of at least six points this season.

Bengals’ 2025 record against the spread

  • 5-7 against the spread
  • 2-1 straight up as the favorite
  • 2-7 straight up as the underdog

Walking into a game expected to lose is nothing new for the Bengals this year. They’ve only been favored to win three times, and only once since the first two games of the season. What makes this week interesting is the calendar changing months.

Cincinnati has only been an underdog nine times in December since 2020, and six of those games were without Burrow. Burrow has been an underdog three times, and never by more than three points. The Bengals were 3-point underdogs to the Denver Broncos in Week 15 of the 2021 season and won that game, 15-10.

Six points is the largest spread against Burrow in December in his career. If there wasn’t any bulletin board material for him to use, he may have some now.

Recent history favors Cincinnati here specifically with this matchup. The Bengals have beaten the Bills in their last two meetings, including their divisional-round playoff matchup in the 2022-23 postseason. The third-most recent game in Week 17 of the 2022 season was cancelled mid-contest when Damar Hamlin needed to be resuscitated. Cincy had a 7-3 lead in the first quarter before the NFL nullified the game entirely.

Burrow and the Bengals will look to make it three-straight against Buffalo on Sunday, and prove the oddsmakers very wrong in the process.