3 Bengals are finalists for AP NFL awards, and here’s how likely each of them are to actually win
Finalists for eight of The Associated Press' 2024 NFL awards have been revealed, and three Cincinnati Bengals are in contention to bring home some hardware. Joe Burrow is a finalist for three awards while Ja'Marr Chase and Trey Hendrickson can each win one apiece. The winners will be announced at the 14th annual NFL Honors ceremony on […]
Finalists for eight of The Associated Press' 2024 NFL awards have been revealed, and three Cincinnati Bengals are in contention to bring home some hardware.
Joe Burrow is a finalist for three awards while Ja'Marr Chase and Trey Hendrickson can each win one apiece. The winners will be announced at the 14th annual NFL Honors ceremony on Feb. 6, just a few days before Super Bowl LIX.
Instead of just telling you which awards the Bengals' three best players can win, I'll do my best to estimate their percentage chance of winning as I compare their cases to their fellow finalists. Let's begin with the QB.
Joe Burrow, AP Most Valuable Player
Other Finalists:
- Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills QB
- Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles RB
- Jared Goff, Detroit Lions QB
- Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens QB
Chance of Winning: 5%
It's very cool Burrow received at least one MVP vote to be listed here, but the award will never go to a QB who missed both the playoffs and the AP All-Pro First Team. Jackson was the All-Pro First Team QB and made the playoffs, which is why he's the favorite in a two-horse race between him and Allen, despite the latter coming out on top in the playoffs. These awards are for the regular season, after all.
Joe Burrow, AP Offensive Player of the Year
Other finalists:
- Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles RB
- Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals WR
- Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens RB
- Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens QB
Chance of Winning: 10%
I'll give Burrow a slightly higher chance to take this one since he won't win MVP, but I think his teammate has a greater shot and we'll explain that in a minute. Barkley's gotta be the favorite here. This award typically recognizes the best non-QB on offense and Barkley is an MVP finalist. Simple as that.
Joe Burrow, AP Comeback Player of the Year
Other Finalists:
- Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings QB
- J.K. Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers RB
- Christian Gonzalez, New England Patriots CB
- Damar Hamlin, Buffalo Bills S
Chance of Winning: 40%
Burrow has already won this award once back in 2021, but there are no rules stating a player can't win twice. Voters were given new guidelines this year to emphasize players coming back from illness or injury rather than career decline, so Darnold probably won't win in that case. Gonzalez was a Second Team All-Pro after coming back from a torn labrum, so he'll have as good of a shot as Burrow. I think Burrow was the bigger story considering the perception of his wrist injury was so severe only to be an MVP candidate a year later.
Ja'Marr Chase, AP Offensive Player of the Year
Other finalists:
- Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles RB
- Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals QB
- Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens RB
- Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens QB
Chance of Winning: 30%
I have Chase second behind Barkley here, even though I think it should be a 1A, 1B situation. Barkley rushed for over 2,000 yards in his incredible first season for Philly, but Chase accomplished something even more rare with the receiver triple crown. The last player to do it—Cooper Kupp in 2021—won this award, so precedent is on Chase's side here. If only he did this while making the playoffs, like Barkley.
Trey Hendrickson, AP Defensive Player of the Year
- Zack Baun, Philadelphia Eagles LB
- Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns DE
- Patrick Surtain II, Denver Broncos CB
- T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh Steelers LB
Chance of Winning: 15%
This feels like the tightest race listed here. Unfortunately, making the playoffs matter here as well. The last DPOY winner to miss the postseason was JJ Watt in 2014, and he finished second in MVP voting that year. Hendrickson is very worthy of this award considering how much he carried Cincinnati's defense, but Baun, Surtain, and Watt all have the advantage of contributing for better teams.
Bengals’ First Team All-Pro drought ends with Ja’Marr Chase, Trey Hendrickson’s dominant seasons rewarded
Chase and Hendrickson are officially All-Pro players.