Bengals: Joe Burrow's deal will be 'well north' of Justin Herbert's deal, per ESPN's Adam Schefter
The final domino for the Cincinnati Bengals' negotiations with quarterback Joe Burrow fell this week when Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert signed a five-year. $262.5 million mega deal. Herbert now has the largest contract in NFL history in terms of average annual value (AAV), but that distinction won't last long. His deal will act […]
The final domino for the Cincinnati Bengals' negotiations with quarterback Joe Burrow fell this week when Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert signed a five-year. $262.5 million mega deal.
Herbert now has the largest contract in NFL history in terms of average annual value (AAV), but that distinction won't last long. His deal will act as the true floor for Burrow to exceed in the very near future.
How much will he exceed it by? That remains to be seen, but it may be more than you'd expect.
ESPN NFL insider Adam Schefter reported Wednesday evening that the numbers in Burrow's eventual deal will be "well north" of Herbert's contract.
"Joe Burrow is going to be a very wealthy man," Schefter said, stating the obvious. "That news yesterday about Justin Herbert impacted a lot of people, but there's nobody that it impacted more than Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals, and they now have a starting point at which to go.
"I can promise you the numbers are going to be well north of the numbers that came in on Justin Herbert."
To the everyday person, an increase of a $1 million or $500,000 in annual salary is already a huge leap. For NFL quarterbacks, it's standard practice. Jalen Hurts got the ball rolling with his $51 million per year contract, which was followed by Lamar Jackson's $52 million per year contract. Herbert ended up at $52.5 million per year.
Conventional wisdom would point you towards Burrow ending up with about $53 million per year, because that's the market has raised itself around him. What would going "well north" of that look like? $55 million? $60 million??
And why would the Bengals agree to his monumental leap? Well, the AAV is ultimately more of a marketing tool than anything. Unless you're Deshaun Watson, it doesn't equate to a player's exact salary per year. It can be manipulated for the team's benefit to comply with the salary cap.
It also has no bearing on how much guarantees are included in the deal, which might be the angle Cincinnati plans to take.
Jackson and Herbert's deals have just over $130 million in fully guaranteed money. These are the largest fully guaranteed sums in the NFL outside of Watson's 100% guaranteed contract. If the Bengals get Burrow to agree to lower guarantees compared to the likes of Herbert and Jackson, they'd likely have to compensate with an AAV that's far larger we've ever seen before.
If Burrow sticks around for the entirety of the deal, he'll get every penny. The Bengals certainly have no intention of ever letting him go before he desires to leave.
The more likely scenario is the raw numbers of Burrow's deal eclipses Herbert's ever so slightly. The market has found a sweet spot between guaranteed sums and an AAV over $50 million. Burrow going smaller with guarantees and much larger with future salaries would be a surprising development, but certainly not impossible.
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Get to September as healthy as possible. A task easier said than done, but one that the Cincinnati Bengals take very seriously. Much is on the minds of Bengals fans nowadays. Contract extensions, the size of remaining championship windows, in-state rivals copying alternate helmets, etc. Watching training camp practices brings a sense of normalcy that […]
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