Bengals’ playoff odds can take a major turn in the next 2 weeks, following ideal Thanksgiving weekend
Here’s where the Bengals’ playoff odds stand after Week 13.
Week 13 went about as well as the Cincinnati Bengals could’ve hoped for after defeating the Baltimore Ravens on Thanksgiving night.
Cincinnati finds itself at 4-8 for the second consecutive season, but beating the Ravens and watching the Buffalo Bills take down the Pittsburgh Steelers ensures only two games separate the Bengals from the lead in the AFC North. Baltimore and Pittsburgh are tied at the top at 6-6, and with five weeks remaining, the race for the crown can go in any direction between the three teams.
Let’s examine where a run to the postseason now stands for Cincinnati.
Bengals’ current playoff odds entering Week 14
The Bengals now have a 6% chance at making the playoffs, according to The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator. They were down to 1% this time last week following their loss to the New England Patriots. Jumping about 5% reflects how important defeating Baltimore was for their slim hopes.
Cincinnati can only realistically make the postseason by winning the division. The best possible record for the club is 9-8, and that is unlikely to earn a spot as one of the three wild cards.
Losing another game in general would be a tumultuous blow, and the next two weeks are especially critical.
The Bengals go on the road to face the Bills this coming Sunday, and then host the Ravens in Week 15. Winning both games would increase Cincy’s playoff odds to 32%, according to The Athletic’s model.
Beating just the Ravens and losing to the Bills would keep the Bengals’ odds at 7%, and they’d need to win out and get very lucky to win the AFC North title at 8-9. Beating the Bills and losing to the Ravens would tank their chances to under 1%. Cincinnati could go 8-9, but that one loss to Baltimore would essentially eliminate them from contention.
Needless to say, Week 15 is vital, and winning this week in Buffalo would only make things easier.
This is why Joe Burrow coming back when he did was crucial. Cincinnati played one of its best games of the season in his return performance against the Ravens, and that victory is the only reason why we’re still talking about the playoffs as a possibility.
We’re saying there’s a chance. Not a likely chance, but a chance nonetheless.
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