Tee Higgins' future, free agency spending, and other Cincinnati Bengals offseason predictions
As the confetti is being picked up from inside Las Vegas' Allegiant Stadium, the 2024 NFL offseason has officially begun for all 32 clubs. The Cincinnati Bengals aren't just chasing the Kansas City Chiefs, they're chasing the entire AFC North again after a last place finish in 2023. But this isn't like last time in […]
As the confetti is being picked up from inside Las Vegas' Allegiant Stadium, the 2024 NFL offseason has officially begun for all 32 clubs.
The Cincinnati Bengals aren't just chasing the Kansas City Chiefs, they're chasing the entire AFC North again after a last place finish in 2023. But this isn't like last time in 2020. The state of the franchise is luckily in a much better place compared to the last time all three of their divisional foes were ahead of them in the standings. The way back to the top is far from impossible.
Free agency begins in about a month. The NFL Draft is a little over two months away. Here are four predictions that will define how the next several weeks pan out for Cincinnati.
Tee Higgins gets the franchise tag
There are two possible outcomes for Higgins, and neither one of them involves another club signing him on the open market. It all starts with the 25-year old being handed the one-year tender for approximately $21 million.
For starters, Higgins would absolutely play on the tag this season. His representation may strongly say the opposite, he may skip volunteer activities and perhaps even training camp, but we all know how this goes. He'll be in the locker room when Week 1 rolls around. It's too much money (around $12m MORE than his career earnings) to just give up, especially following the worst season of his career.
The actual question lies in what happens along with the tag. Do the Bengals find a trade partner to commit a very non-Bengals move in sending off one of their best players for a draft pick(s)? Does something equally unlikely happen in the form of both sides agreeing on a new contract? The safe bet is he gets the tag and nothing else happens.
The window for the franchise tag opens next week on Feb. 20. and runs through Mar. 5.
Free agency attention at defensive tackle
Taking care of Higgins removes wide receiver from becoming as big of a need as right tackle and defensive tackle currently stand. It wouldn't be too surprising to see the Bengals dip into deep free agency waters to fill right tackle, but if they aren't going to pay Jonah Williams his market rate, they may just go the route they went down in 2021: signing a cheaper veteran and drafting for the future. The result would ideally be better this time.
Defensive tackle is primed to be the Bengals' true free agency focus this year. All they have at the moment is one more year of B.J. Hill and *squints* Zach Carter, Jay Tufele, and a few players even more unproven than them.
What's happening with DJ Reader? Your guess is as good as mine. Suffering a season-ending injury in December at the age of 29 is not how any player wants to enter free agency.
That could help the Bengals get him back on the low, but as evidenced from last year when they had him healthy, they need more.
Even if Reader comes back on a one-year deal later in the offseason when his recovery is clearer, I expect the Bengals to either go big on one of the premier free agent defensive tackles, or attack it more conventionally with multiple mid-tier signings.
Two early draft picks used on offense
Spending on the defense in March can allow the Bengals to focus on the offense in April, and they're very much overdue for it. The last six NFL Draft picks Cincinnati has used in the first three rounds have been on defensive players. Expect the pendulum to start swinging back in the other direction this year.
Arguably the two most talented positions in this year's class are offensive tackle and wide receiver. The Bengals will have the chance to grab a good one at either position with the 18th overall pick, and the 49th overall pick will have intriguing options as well. Knowing this team's history, a first-round tackle and wide receiver picked on day two is the predictable outcome, and it also makes the most sense this year.
There's also tight end to consider. The Bengals have, quite literally, no players at that position under contract for 2024. That will change once free agency concludes, but they also haven't drafted one since Drew Sample in 2019!
The need for long-term options along the offensive line, and next to Ja'Marr Chase out wide should influence how the Bengals attack their first few picks in the draft.
New starters at running back & tight end
Speaking of tight end, it's hard to imagine either Sample or Tanner Hudson not being brought back for next season. They each found their specific roles in the offense and can continue to fulfill them, but neither one is an all-around option worth featuring as the main starter.
Should the Bengals want to go under center more often, they need at least one tight end that can not only rep as an inline player, but can threaten defenses in the passing game. You'd get this by mixing Sample and Hudson together, but human fusion isn't possible, or legal, yet.
Whether via free agency or the draft, the Bengals need a true replacement for Irv Smith Jr. Hayden Hurst. They may end up needing one for Joe Mixon at running back as well.
Mixon is due to earn a fully guaranteed roster bonus of $3m next month. It's not a given that the Bengals will release him prior, but there will be ample options to replace him for cheaper. 10 running backs made A to Z Sports' top 105 free agents; the market will surely be saturated.
They saved money last year by having him take a pay cut, the smart decision this year could be to just cut him altogether.
A to Z Sports’ Top 105 Contract Projections Ahead of 2024 NFL Free Agency
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