What a contract extension would look like for Bengals K Evan McPherson
The biggest waves of NFL free agency have passed, but there are still plenty of players that could receive new/big deals in the form of contract extensions. Dozens of guys are either entering the final year -or penultimate year- of their current contract and they've played so well that their respective squad is looking to […]
The biggest waves of NFL free agency have passed, but there are still plenty of players that could receive new/big deals in the form of contract extensions.
Dozens of guys are either entering the final year -or penultimate year- of their current contract and they've played so well that their respective squad is looking to go ahead and extend them, anyway.
A to Z Sports has come up with our own extension projections for said players this offseason. Whether the extensions happen or not remains to be seen, but at least you'll have a viable resource to rely on during the time being.
So, without further ado, let's check out what an extension for Cincinnati Bengals kicker, Evan McPherson, would look like.
Extension Projection for Bengals K Evan McPherson
The Bengals drafted Evan McPherson with the 150th overall pick in the fifth round of the 2021 NFL Draft. He burst onto the scene during the following postseason, hitting all 14 field goal attempts while calling his shot for the final kick of the divisional round that sent the Bengals to the AFC Conference Championship game for the first time in 33 years.
Over his first three years of his career he has connected on 83.87% of his field goal attempts and more than 75% of his attempts from beyond 50 yards.
Those stats line up well with Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders’ first three seasons in the league.
| Player | 3yr FGM | 3yr FGA | % | 3yr 50+M | 3yr 50+ A | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Evan McPherson | 97 | 112 | 86.61% | 24 | 31 | 77.42% |
Jason Sanders | 77 | 89 | 86.52% | 12 | 15 | 80% |
Now while the two kickers are close, Sanders had a much better platform season that led to his extension.
| Player | FGM | FGA | % | 50+ M | 50+ A | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Evan McPherson | 26 | 21 | 83.87% | 7 | 12 | 58.33% |
Jason Sanders | 36 | 29 | 92.31% | 8 | 9 | 88.89% |
This sets Sanders as a solid comp for McPherson to try and reach. Sanders signed a five-year, $22 million extension in 2021. Sanders’ $4.4 million APY represented 2.4% of 2021’s $182.5 million salary cap. That year was a bit of an aberration as the cap contracted from the previous year’s $198.2 million before spiking back to $208.2 million in 2022.
Using the 2.4% of same year cap as a barometer, McPherson will most likely use Sanders as a comp with a salary cap inflation adjusted contract offer of $6 million per year. This would likely be an offer over four years.
Houston Texans Kicker Ka’imi Fairnbairn just signed an extension for three years and $15.9 million. Fairbairn’s consistency over the past three years outpaces McPherson’s in regular season play, while McPherson has been given ample extra postseason work.
| Player | 3yr FGM | 3yr FGA | % | 3yr 50+ M | 3yr 50+ A | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Evan McPherson | 97 | 112 | 86.61% | 24 | 31 | 77.42% |
Ka’imi Fairbairn | 71 | 78 | 91.03% | 15 | 18 | 83.33% |
Fairbairn is also coming off of a much stronger season.
| Player | FGM | FGA | % | 50+ M | 50+ A | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Evan McPherson | 26 | 31 | 83.87% | 7 | 12 | 58.33% |
Ka’imi Fairbairn | 27 | 28 | 96.43% | 5 | 6 | 83.33% |
The Bengals can easily counter McPherson’s $6 million APY request with Fairbairn’s deal to immediately lower the ceiling of the deal to $5.3 million. They will also look to find their own comp that they think is more reasonable. Cairo Santos may be the deal they point to as more in-line with McPherson’s value. Santos signed a five-year, $15.6 million deal this past year after putting up the following numbers over the three years prior.
| Player | 3yr FGM | 3yr FGA | % | 3yr 50+ M | 3yr 50+ A | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cairos Santos | 77 | 85 | 90.59% | 6 | 10 | 60% |
Using that contract’s $3.9 million APY as a barometer, the Bengals may put out an opening bid adjusted for salary cap inflation of $4.4 million per year. This gives a roughly $1 million window of room for the two parties to try to come to an accord within. Both numbers would ensure McPherson ends up in the top-10 of all kickers in APY.
Given McPherson’s track record in the playoff,s where he is a perfect 19 of 19 on field goal attempts and 12 of 13 on extra point attempts, he will be able to argue he is even more capable in high-leverage situations. That should allow him to push closer to his side of the negotiations.
Final Contract Projection: Four years, $21 million – $10.25 million fully guaranteed
Be sure to check back in the coming days and weeks for more extension projections.
