Current Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates through four weeks
The 2023 NFL rookies are already making their presence felt around the league. When it comes to the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, a few players have proven themselves to be top contenders for the award. So far, through the 2023 season's first four weeks, three rookies have stood out among the rest […]
The 2023 NFL rookies are already making their presence felt around the league.
When it comes to the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, a few players have proven themselves to be top contenders for the award.
So far, through the 2023 season's first four weeks, three rookies have stood out among the rest on the offensive side of the ball.
CJ Stroud:
Houston Texans QB CJ Stroud is currently the heavy favorite to be named Offensive Rookie of the Year. Through the first four weeks, Stroud has thrown for 1,212 yards and six touchdowns.
- Week 1 Loss @ Baltimore Ravens: 28/44, 242 yards
- Week 2 Loss vs. Indianapolis Colts: 30/47, 384 yards, 2 touchdowns
- Week 3 Win @ Jacksonville Jaguars: 20/30, 280 yards, 2 touchdowns
- Week 4 Win vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: 16/30, 306 yards, 2 touchdowns
His impressive start to the season has him on pace to throw for 5,151 yards, which would shatter the current rookie passing yards record previously set by Andrew Luck in 2012 when he threw for 4,374 yards. His success is also leading to wins for the Texans, who are now 2-2 on the year, who seem to be playing with a new level of intensity under rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans. If Stroud continues at this pace and the Texans continue to win football games, he will be a big factor in this conversation.
Puka Nacua:
The biggest surprise so far in the entire rookie class has been Los Angeles Rams 5th-round pick Puka Nacua. Nacua currently leads all rookies in receptions and receiving yards. He also leads the NFL as a whole in receptions and is 2nd only behind Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson in receiving yards. After the first four weeks of the season, Nacua has caught 39 balls for 501 receiving yards.
- Week 1 Win @ Seattle Seahawks: 10 receptions, 119 yards
- Week 2 Loss vs. San Francisco 49ers: 15 receptions, 147 yards
- Week 3 Loss @ Cincinnati Bengals: 5 receptions, 72 yards
- Week 4 Win @ Indianapolis Colts: 9 receptions, 163 yards, 1 touchdown
Nacua is currently on pace to break the rookie record for receiving yards in a season as well as receptions, but his pace goes beyond just rookie records. Nacua is currently on pace to break the NFL's receiving yards in a season record set by Hall of Famer Calvin Johnson in 2012 with 1,964 yards. The closest any player has come to that record is Nacua's teammate Cooper Kupp in 2021, when he went for 1,947 yards. Nacua has an uphill battle with two rookie QBs performing well early, but in my opinion, if you set NFL history as a rookie, that trumps the QB multiplier that most awards hold.
Anthony Richardson:
Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson currently leads all rookies in total touchdowns with seven through the first four weeks of the season, three passing touchdowns, and four rushing. In second is a tie between Miami Dolphins RB De'Von Achane and Houston Texans QB CJ Stroud with six. What makes this even more impressive for Richardson is that he has only played in two full games this season after being ruled out in the first quarter of Week 2 after suffering a concussion, which would force him to miss the team's Week 3 outing as well.
Due to Richardson missing time early, he finds himself clearly behind Stroud and Nacua, but his success in fewer games makes you wonder where he would be if he had played in all four games this season. Richardson's dual threat through the air and on the ground will continue to be a massive part of the Colts offense going forward. And if Richardson stays healthy the rest of the way, I wouldn't be shocked if he rises in the offensive rookie of the year race due to the overall stats he can rack up through passing and rushing.
Vegas' Odds Via Draft Kings:
CJ Stroud +175
Puka Nacua + 425
Anthony Richardson +550
Bonus: Bijan Robinson + 450
My Personal Rankings:
- Puka Nacua
- CJ Stroud
- Anthony Richardson
While Stroud and Richardson get the QB multiplier that comes with playing the leagues most important position, Nacua is currently on pace to make NFL history. To me that should have him as the favorite for the award as of today.
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