3 reasons why Cowboys could upset Texans on Monday Night Football: Weaknesses to exploit
Confidence on the Dallas Cowboys across the NFL landscape has hit rock bottom after a 3-6 start to the season and a season-ending injury to quarterback Dak Prescott. So suggesting the Cowboys could beat the Houston Texans with Cooper Rush (and maybe a little bit of Trey Lance) under the lights of Monday Night Football might […]
Confidence on the Dallas Cowboys across the NFL landscape has hit rock bottom after a 3-6 start to the season and a season-ending injury to quarterback Dak Prescott.
So suggesting the Cowboys could beat the Houston Texans with Cooper Rush (and maybe a little bit of Trey Lance) under the lights of Monday Night Football might come off as outrageous, egregious, preposterous (you read that in Jackie Chile's voice, didn't you?).
However, there are reasons to believe it could happen, particularly three which I've listed below. Now granted, the Cowboys have been bad and there are plenty of unfavorable matchups on the upcoming game between in-state rivals.
But this remains an "any given Sunday" league and there will be opportunities for Dallas to keep it close enough and have a chance to steal a win, for better or worse. Let's dive in.
1. Cowboys will be able to pressure C.J. Stroud
This is the biggest one. Stroud is the sixth-most pressured quarterback in the NFL (percentage wise) and though the Cowboys had had an unsuccessful pass rush lately, Micah Parsons returning to the field sparked it back to life.
His five pressures against the Eagles yielded two sacks and a forced fumble but it also opened up lanes for teammates such as Chauncey Golston and DeMarvion Overshown, who has been featured as a blitzer in recent weeks.
The Cowboys went Weeks 6-9 with no player recording over three pressures. Parsons really changes the defensive end room and the Texans' OL has been quite inconsistent, including star left tackle Laremy Tunsil, who has had a couple of bad games this season. Expect some big plays from the Cowboys' pass rush on Sunday.
2. Texans have struggled to close out games
The Texans just lost a game to the Detroit Lions despite intercepting Jared Goff five times. While that doesn't mean the Cowboys could get away with five turnovers, it does reflect the fact that Houston has struggled to finish off opponents. In fact, all but one of their six wins has come in one-score games.
It's no coincidence, either: The Texans happen to be one of the worst teams in the league running the football, ranking 29th in rush EPA/play and 31st in rush success rate. In last week's loss to the Lions, Joe Mixon averaged 1.8 yards per attempt in 25 attempts.
The Texans simply struggle to chew the clock once they're up. Unless the Cowboys get gashed by one of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL, the door should be open for four quarters to come away with the win.
3. Texans shoot themselves on the foot pretty often
One of the most frustrating aspects of the 2024 NFL season for Cowboys fans has been the fact that the team consistently is called for penalties that complicate matters. Well, the Texans aren't that far off.
Their 72 penalties against are good for the fourth-most in the league and they're called for an average of 60.4 yards against. The Cowboys average 54 penalty yards.
It's a young team, and one that fellow A to Z Sports writer Justin Churchill recently described to me as "this is a team completely new to winning, especially with these kind of expectations. They are still learning to win, and it’s taking them a bit."
You might've noticed that the reasons why I believe the Cowboys can pull off an upset in Week 11 are more about the Texans than they're about America's Team. That's because I believe the Cowboys' opponent is flawed, albeit not as much as Dallas is.
But hey, you take what you can get, right?
