Can the Cowboys pass their way to a Super Bowl run?
The Dallas Cowboys offense is going through some growing pains running the football which has become one of the major concerns for a fanbase that wants to see a very good team be perfect. It's the way it goes in the NFL. Rarely will fans be fully content with how their team is performing because […]
The Dallas Cowboys offense is going through some growing pains running the football which has become one of the major concerns for a fanbase that wants to see a very good team be perfect.
It's the way it goes in the NFL. Rarely will fans be fully content with how their team is performing because nothing is quite as elusive as a Super Bowl win, which is all we all care about at the end of the day.
And yes, the Cowboys' running game has a lot to figure out. And it won't be solved just by giving Rico Dowdle a handful more carries moving forward. In reality, Dallas has scheme-related things to figure out and it needs its offensive line to be much more consistent upfront, too.
However, this post won't be a "How To Fix The Running Game" type article. It will instead pose the following question: How much should we really care about it in the first place?
"This team is not a running team," Will Steele said on A to Z Sports Dallas' Primetime. "It's a perimeter-led, a quarterback-led team."
Obviously, running the football is extremely important in this league. Not in the old-school way of thinking that makes coaches want to "establish the run" (which has been proven to be an incorrect concept) but rather to consistently close out games where you hold the lead. Or to score in red zone situations.
But while that much is true, the Cowboys aren't a running team anymore. They live and die through the pass. Since the bye week, no other team has thrown the football more often than expected than Dallas, per Next Gen Stats.
Gone is the quick-game philosophy we saw all of September. Dak Prescott is pushing the ball downfield and spreading it around. The team is consistently staying ahead of the chains, avoiding third-and-longs. CeeDee Lamb is the go-to of the offense and it doesn't matter if he's getting doubled or not. And whether it's Jake Ferguson or Brandin Cooks, there are more weapons on the team to keep defenses honest.
It's the analytics community dream: It appears Mike McCarthy has this offense in full-airborne mode and it's likely not stopping anytime soon. Right? Right!? Let's dive in.
Is this the real Cowboys offense's identity?
When the Cowboys decided to air it out against the L.A. Rams in Week 8 (right after the bye), they showed us a version of what Dak Prescott and company could be for the rest of the season. Yet, I don't think anyone was convinced right away that this was going to become the version of McCarthy's offense.
More than anything, it seemed like they identified that they could destroy the Rams by throwing the football. I perceived it as a one-game mirage. But since then, we've seen them go on the road to face the Philadelphia Eagles and remain just as aggressive. Even in a very lopsided game against the New York Giants, they kept throwing and throwing.
The massive shift in mindset sure looks real right now. Heck, even Jerry Jones has changed his tune when discussing how the passing and running game co-exist.
Cowboys can pass their way to a Super Bowl run
No, a three-game sample size isn't enough to believe the Cowboys are a Super Bowl favorite or anything like that. But it seems pretty evident that this version of the offense is exactly the biggest reason why fans could start believing this is the year where Dallas takes that next step.
Dak Prescott is playing at an MVP-caliber level and he's inserted himself in the award conversation by producing 12 total touchdowns in the last three games. No one has generated as much total EPA as he has over that span.
"He hasn't done it against the San Francisco 49ers!" you might yell at me as you read this.
You're 100% right, dear reader. And that's a big-time concern. But we also know that while it still is a tough matchup, this is a different offense. Back in Week 5, the Cowboys were static. There was no motion, no 3×1 looks, no bunch formations. Brandin Cooks wasn't being utilized properly and the team insisted on the quick game.
It's a different scheme now. And Dak playing at this level within it is the biggest reason why fans should hold out hope for them exceeding expectations moving forward.
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QB1 isn’t holding back.
