Can the Dallas Cowboys really land a Top 5 NFL Draft pick? Here are the teams they need to win games
No matter what owner Jerry Jones said a couple of weeks ago about there needing to be hope for the Dallas Cowboys because of the amount of games left to be played, there's none of it to be found among fans and media. One could argue not even in players and coaches. The 2024 NFL season […]
No matter what owner Jerry Jones said a couple of weeks ago about there needing to be hope for the Dallas Cowboys because of the amount of games left to be played, there's none of it to be found among fans and media. One could argue not even in players and coaches.
The 2024 NFL season has been over for the Cowboys for a good while even if they're not mathematically eliminated yet. For Dallas, it's a matter of when and not if.
With that being said, a large portion of Cowboys fans are already skipping the team's cold winter and fast forwarding to the eternal hope of the spring, wondering what kind of player the team can land with a top draft pick in 2025.
At this time, a Top 10 draft pick feels like a likelihood and some even have hope of landing a Top 5 pick. But can they really do it? Let's take a look at the numbers and at the teams that could be competing with them to land such a valuable asset.
Per FTN's DVOA efficiency metric, which takes into consideration a variety of factors including strength of schedule, the Cowboys have a 21.9% probability of landing a Top 5 pick, ranking ninth in the league. Here's the list of the 10 NFL teams with the highest chances of landing such a high pick:
- New England Patriots, 78%
- Cleveland Browns, 70%
- Tennessee Titans, 66%
- Las Vegas Raiders, 64%
- Carolina Panthers, 58%
- New York Giants, 53%
- Jacksonville Jaguars 46%
- New York Jets, 28%
- Dallas Cowboys, 22%
- Chicago Bears, 8%
Naturally, the Cowboys need all of the above to start winning games so they can climb up the draft order. Right now, there are very few reasons to believe the team is turning things around any time soon. But they do have a couple of very winnable games left on their schedule, as they'll get the Tommy DeVito-led Giants on Thanksgiving and they'll visit the Carolina Panthers in Week 15.
In other words, it won't be as easy as many assume to be picking in the Top 5. Now granted, even those matchups are far from guaranteed wins the way the season is going, but they'll be critical in determining where the Cowboys will be picking in April.
If the 2025 NFL Draft was held today, the Cowboys would be picking ninth overall.
