Cowboys can absolutely beat the Ravens in Week 3 if they clear one important hurdle
After the Dallas Cowboys were embarrassed by the New Orleans Saints last Sunday, it's easy to understand where this notion that they'll be unable to beat any good teams this year comes from. After all, it's the second consecutive whooping they receive at AT&T Stadium. With the Baltimore Ravens up next, another has to come next, […]
After the Dallas Cowboys were embarrassed by the New Orleans Saints last Sunday, it's easy to understand where this notion that they'll be unable to beat any good teams this year comes from. After all, it's the second consecutive whooping they receive at AT&T Stadium.
With the Baltimore Ravens up next, another has to come next, right? Well, not really. This is the NFL, after all, and things change in a weekly basis.
As a 1.5-point betting spread suggests, this game is feeling like a coin toss. And make no mistake about it: The Cowboys can absolutely beat the 0-2 Ravens but they do have to clear one hurdle to stay in the game: They've got to force Lamar Jackson to drop back and pass the ball.
That's not a knock on two-time MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson. It's rather a reminder that the Cowboys are a darn good team when it comes to rushing the passer, which starts with arguably the team's best player, Micah Parsons. It's also a reflection of the Ravens' shaky offensive line, particularly on the right side, where Patrick Mekari's poor performance against the Las Vegas Raiders has even raised questions about who should be starting at right tackle. At right guard, the Ravens are not much better, making the entire right side side of their offensive line a mismatch in favor of Dallas.
Additionally, the Ravens' passing offense isn't exactly quick, as Jackson's average time to throw ranks 27th in the league, per PFF. Most of their chunk plays often come late in the down as Lamar scrambles around before one of his pass catchers finds a weak spot on the opponent's coverage.
Last week, the Cowboys barely got a chance to rush quarterback Derek Carr, as he had only 18 dropbacks with 12 of them being play action and four being screen passes. That was a major change to Week 1, when Parsons and Co. were able to tee off on Deshaun Watson as they had the game script on their favor from the start. Which brings us to the big problem Dallas faces.
The Cowboys' problem? Getting to passing downs
So the Cowboys can find the edge if they force Lamar Jackson tot throw. Easier said than done, right?
The Ravens aren't a team that lives and dies by the outside run as they often prefer to run it up the gut but after seeing what the Saints were able to do against the Cowboys defense by targeting the perimeter, why wouldn't they replicate New Orleans' gameplan?
The Ravens will force the Cowboys to stay on base down defenses, forcing them to get physical as they play the second-least snaps of 11 personnel (three wide receivers). Instead, they use large doses of 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends, two wide receivers).
And while they prefer to run inside, they can and will run outside, as the play below shows. In it, not only does the Ravens' core offensive line successfully reach the Raiders defensive tackles, which was a problem for the Cowboys against the Saints, but non-linemen bring the intensity as well.
Stopping the run will be a challenge and an even bigger problem is you can't sell out against the run against Baltimore because they'll throw the heck out of that football if you do. In other words, they thrive off of 12 personnel.
To put it simply, the Cowboys' answer to improve against the run cannot be "let's load the box like crazy!" It has to come from better execution up front. Otherwise, Jackson will make the defense pay for it.
"It's a big challenge because it's the different types of formations that they get to, because they do play their 12 (personnel) and 11 (personnel) very similarly conceptually," Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy told reporters on Wednesday. "Their tight ends are a hell of a group, that's definitely a stress point for us and a focal point for us defensively."
McCarthy is right: The Ravens will constantly use two tight ends but they can do so from condensed formations or go with Isaiah Likely and/or Mark Andrews in the slot or out wide, essentially using them as wide receivers at times.
Mike Zimmer’s odd comment adds fuel to theory that Cowboys got overconfident against the Saints
Otherwise, it makes no sense.
