The Dallas Cowboys are double-digit favorites against the Washington Commanders entering Thanksgiving. And they should be.

The Cowboys clearly have the better roster, a great defense featuring two D.P.O.Y. candidates in Micah Parsons and yes, DaRon Bland, and one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL right now in Dak Prescott. 

However, that doesn't necessarily mean that yet another blowout is in store at AT&T Stadium. Sure, recent outcomes suggest it is. 

On the one hand, you've got Dallas, which has won by an average margin of 27.5 points over the last two games. They also have had six games where starters sit out a portion of the game after virtually securing the win. On the other, there's a Commanders team that allowed three passing touchdowns from New York Giants quarterback Tommy DeVito. 

Dak Prescott vs Sam Howell: Gunslinger Battle? 

Everyone would agree Prescott is having a better season than Howell, as he's even drawing some arguments for an MVP candidacy. However, there's something about Howell that makes this a fun game to look forward to. 

Although Howell isn't seen by many as a fun quarterback, I believe this could shape up to be quite the gunslinger duel. 

Howell leads the NFL in big-time throws per Pro Football Focus with 24 of them while Dak Prescott trails him with 22. Now, percentage-wise, Howell is 10th in the league with Prescott at third. Even still, it's clear Howell can make some plays when he's asked to push the ball downfield, and that happens often.

Having Terry McLaurin lead a solid group of perimeter players makes the match-up more intriguing, too. The question is if facing the Cowboys' pass rush is able to take over this game, though. It's certainly a step up in competition as opposed to the last couple of weeks, but this is an average offensive line that ranks 16th in the league in pass blocking per Ben Baldwin's composite rankings. 

Prescott is far and away the better QB but I believe the Commanders have a better shot at making explosive plays than the Panthers, Giants, and Rams (the Cowboys' most recent blowout wins). I wouldn't be surprised if this one is a little bit of a closer game. 

Stopping Howell is very possible, though.

Out of structure, though, Howell can make mistakes. He's made the most turnover-worthy plays in the NFL when under pressure (13) and has the 9th-highest percentage of such plays entering Week 12. 

The Cowboys will be able to get pressure, particularly inside, where they can unleash Micah Parsons. Last weekend, Parsons got three of his sacks rushing the A-gap in stunts. 

Game Prediction

I believe the Commanders put more points than expected on the board but not enough to keep up with the pass-happy version of the 2023 Cowboys, a trend I expect to continue against the 30th defense in dropback EPA, per RBSDM.com. 

Give me the Cowboys 35 to 23.