Dallas Cowboys have a 0.1% chance of making the playoffs: Here's how it could happen
Before we get any further I need you to do this for me, especially if you're a Dallas Cowboys fan. Take a deep, deep breath and repeat to yourself three times: It's not going to happen, it's not going to happen, it's not going to happen. Listen, I just don't want to get anyone's hopes up […]
Before we get any further I need you to do this for me, especially if you're a Dallas Cowboys fan. Take a deep, deep breath and repeat to yourself three times: It's not going to happen, it's not going to happen, it's not going to happen.
Listen, I just don't want to get anyone's hopes up before their feelings are shattered to pieces on Sunday. But hey, the Cowboys aren't eliminated from the playoffs. And after three years in a row of 12-win seasons and worrying about seeding, etc., sure I got jealous of other beat writers.
I wanted to do a Cowboys' playoff scenarios post before it's too late. So here's the thing: FTN Fantasy's DVOA model projects the Cowboys' chances of making the playoffs at 0.1%. That means multiple things:
- It's not zero!
- It's pretty close to zero.
- A lot would have to happen. A lot.
I wanted to focus on No. 3 here and try to figure out what does 0.1% even mean? So with that, let's dive into it. I insist, don't get your hopes up. Just have some fun at the thought of the Cowboys potentially making the postseason after such a disastrous year. I'll try to keep each step short and concise (keyword: try) to avoid confusion.
Note: with so many combinations in the NFC still, there might be scenarios missed by this post, but these are the "likeliest" factors that could lead to a very improbable occurrence.
Step 1: Get to nine wins
CeeDee Lamb said it following the Cowboys' win over the Panthers last weekend: "We got to win out, so in order for anything else to happen—all the help that we need—we still have to do our part."
That's true. The Cowboys have to win out, which would get them to nine wins. As of today, there are already three Wild Card teams sitting at minimum nine wins. That means they're fighting for the seven-seed and the seven-seed only. Which leads us to…
Step 2: NFC squads have to start losing!
If the Cowboys were to make it, they'd do so with a 9-8 record. That means they won't catch any of the top NFC West teams vying for a postseason spot. The Vikings, Packers, and Lions are all at 10 wins or more. But they could – in theory and probably only in theory – aim for the seven seed.
Fortunately for Dallas (I'm holding back laughter, here), if they went 3-0 to close out the season, they'd have the advantage as far as tiebreakers go with other nine-win teams. If the Cowboys, Commanders, Cardinals, Rams/Seahawks, and Bucs all finished 9-8, Dallas would be in, per ESPN's Playoff Machine.
As such, for Dallas to make it, they need:
- The 9-5 Commanders have to lose out (vs PHI, vs ATL, @ DAL)
- Seahawks to go 1-2, ending in nine wins OR Seahawks winning the NFC West while Rams go 1-2 themselves to end in 9-8. Remember, we're thinking about the last Wild Card spot here.
- They also need the Cardinals and Buccaneers to go 1-2 to end in 9-8.
Sounds like a plan, doesn't it? Well…
By now you probably have an idea of why it's very hard to expect the above to happen. First of all, consider this: The Cowboys are four-point underdogs vs. the Bucs this week and will be 11-point underdogs vs. the Eagles the next. Spreads aren't out for the Commanders matchup in Week 18, but even after they upset them earlier in the year, it's difficult to expect the same again.
It's not going to happen, it's not going to happen, it's not going to happen. But I hope you had fun with this hypothetical ranting!
