Cowboys optimistic preview: What needs to go right for a deep playoff run in 2024 NFL season
"You don't have a crystal ball, you can't look at a kid and predict his future," – Brad Pitt as Brandon Beane on Moneyball. I think of that line a whole lot during the NFL offseason because we spend several months acting like we know exactly what will happen to every team, including the Dallas Cowboys, […]
"You don't have a crystal ball, you can't look at a kid and predict his future," – Brad Pitt as Brandon Beane on Moneyball.
I think of that line a whole lot during the NFL offseason because we spend several months acting like we know exactly what will happen to every team, including the Dallas Cowboys, and toss out all sorts of predictions, including the exact number of games each team will win.
So today, we're changing things up: Instead of diving into predictions, we'll explore what the Cowboys season will look like with an optimistic lens in place. Below are not predictions but rather an outlook of what would need to go well for the team to make a deep playoff run.
Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense picks up where it left off (minus Packers game)
Once the Cowboys decided to lean on their passing game last year, the Prescott-led offense was almost unstoppable. Dallas finished the 2024 season leading the NFL in points scored per game, being the only team to cross the 30-point mark.
Despite shying away from such tactics against the Green Bay Packers, the Cowboys found a way to force feed CeeDee Lamb and did a great job of incorporating motion into their scheme while giving Prescott easy buttons to press to get the unit going.
If the Cowboys find a way to tap back into such an identity, they should hit the ground running the upcoming season and be back to their winning ways in no time. It's easier said than done, but it will be important for HC Mike McCarthy to keep the pass-happy knobs all the way up.
Mike Zimmer delivers better run defense
Zimmer has a tough task ahead as many expect him to improve the defense following Dan Quinn's departure. Sounds simple if you think about the Packers game and the debacle against the Buffalo Bills but keep in mind: Quinn's defense with the Cowboys ranked #1 in EPA/play since 2021, via RBSDM.com.
The key will be in being better against the run and Kyle Shanahan-esque schemes, an area in which Quinn's units have been vulnerable in the past. Zimmer is expected to establish a more versatile defense that won't shy away from two-high looks as he figures out a way to stop the run without the need to load the box, which was almost a necessity under Quinn.
One of the biggest things that could go well for Dallas in 2024 is if Zimmer's scheme alone boosts a defense that could use more talent on the interior defensive line. Eric Kendricks at linebacker should help, as he brings much-needed size and versatility.
Eagles' struggles persist into 2024
Nothing wrong with a little help! A big part of the Cowboys' success this year will have to do with whether or not they win the division and get top-tier seeding in the playoffs. Winning the division would represent having a repeat champion in the NFC East for the first time in two decades.
The big rival on this race is the Philadelphia Eagles. Although they gave their coaching staff a significant shake up by adding a couple of new coordinators in Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio, Philly's struggles are not guaranteed to have gone away after ending the season on a 1-5 note.
The secondary will put a lot of pressure on a couple of rookies to be solid and there are legit question marks around both coordinators. If their woes persist, winning the NFC East would be much easier as the New York Giants and Washington Commanders are both a long way from being contenders.
Win-loss record prediction: What's the Cowboys ceiling?
The Cowboys have way too much talent to not be a playoff team but their best-case scenario might not be as high considering they'll face a tough schedule. In Warren Sharp's strength of schedule metric, the Cowboys rank 22nd (32nd being the hardest).
But if everything goes right? I'll go with a 13-4 mark to end the year, with losses to the San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Cincinnati Bengals, and Houston Texans.
Cowboys finally show up in the playoffs
No record will matter unless the Cowboys don't get it done in the playoffs. Since we're doing an optimistic preview, I'll set the floor at reaching the NFC Championship Game and with a little bit of luck, being the host of it.
With a high-flying offense and a top-tier defense that can survive the run (based on this hypothetical preview), the Cowboys should be able to beat anybody for a ticket to the Super Bowl at AT&T Stadium.
The rest of the NFL just told us maybe the Cowboys didn’t mess up their Tyron Smith decision
Maybe they got it right.
