Cowboys Playoff Picture: A new foe in the NFC

The Dallas Cowboys are 6-3 heading into Week 11 following a dominant win over the New York Giants. Every week, we'll be exploring the team's playoff picture within the NFC. Cowboys' playoff picture if the season ended today… Eagles (8-1)Lions (7-2)49ers (6-3)Saints (5-5)Seahawks (6-3) Wild CardCowboys (6-3) Wild CardVikings (6-4) Wild Card If the season […]

Mauricio Rodriguez — Dallas Cowboys News Writer
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Dallas Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle (23) runs the ball against the New York Giants in the second quarter at AT&T Stadium.
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

The Dallas Cowboys are 6-3 heading into Week 11 following a dominant win over the New York Giants. Every week, we'll be exploring the team's playoff picture within the NFC.

Cowboys' playoff picture if the season ended today…

  1. Eagles (8-1)
  2. Lions (7-2)
  3. 49ers (6-3)
  4. Saints (5-5)
  5. Seahawks (6-3) Wild Card
  6. Cowboys (6-3) Wild Card
  7. Vikings (6-4) Wild Card

If the season ended today, the Cowboys would take on the San Francisco 49ers on the road. That's a game Dallas probably wants to avoid as it isn't a very favorable matchup, considering the Cowboys' 0-3 record against Kyle Shanahan's squad since 2021. 

That means that besides the Eagles within the division, we're now watching the Seattle Seahawks very closely, too. They own the fifth seed and a ticket to face whoever wins the NFC South, likely to be the "weakest foe" in January. 

Fortunately for the Cowboys, they'll have something to do with the Seahawks' record when it's all said and done as they host them in Week 13 for a Sunday Night Football showdown. That'll be one of the most critical games on the Cowboys' remaining schedule.

As things stand right now, the Cowboys should feel desperate to climb to the top Wild Card spot. Ideally, of course, they'd take the NFC East (more on that later).

Will the Cowboys make the playoffs?

Yes. Sí. Oui. 

The win-loss records above might make it seem like a close race but it isn't. Per DVOA, the Cowboys have a 95.5% chance of making the postseason. They will be playing in January. 

Can Dallas win the NFC East?

Here's where it gets interesting. After Week 10, the Cowboys have a 22.3% chance of winning the division. That's significantly lower than the Eagles at 77.7% but still a sizeable 7% jump since last week. 

The Cowboys have very little room for error as the Eagles hold the tiebreaker advantages as of right now. Dallas likely needs to out-win Philly overall as a tie is highly likely to go Philly's way. We went more in-depth on this last week. 

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