The NFL has a George Pickens problem that might not have a solution as Cowboys’ win streak continues
The Dallas Cowboys’ WR1 has more than one ace under his sleeve.
On Thanksgiving, George Pickens entered the fourth quarter with just two catches for 22 yards as the Dallas Cowboys trailed the Kansas City Chiefs 21-20.
It just felt like Pickens was about to have his signature moment. He did. On third and eight, Prescott targeted Pickens on a slant route. After making the catch two yards shy of the first down marker, the star wide receiver hit a spin move and hurdled a defender down the sideline to gain an additional 33 yards after the catch. The Cowboys would go up 28-21 a few plays later.
Later, with a potential game-clinching third and two, Prescott looked to Pickens again. It was a slant route yet again. Pickens delivered the first down. The game was over, and Dallas extended its win streak to three.
Four days earlier, Pickens had secured the Cowboys’ win over the Philadelphia Eagles with another slant route to set up Brandon Aubrey for the easy field goal. It’s become his most dangerous weapon, and one that has NFL personalities talking about it, including former All-Pro cornerbacks Chris Harris Jr. and Stephon Gilmore.
In the social media post below, Gilmore writes “Beat me on anything else but a slant,” in response to a Harris post pointing out Pickens kept running slants. Former Cowboys WR Jesse Holley recently posted a video for DLLS Cowboys saying it’s “blowing his mind” defenders aren’t taking away the slant.
So why do defenses keep allowing Pickens to run one of the most basic routes in football at such a high level? Let’s break it down, starting by illustrating exactly how dominant he is running it.
George Pickens is dominating defenses with the slant
No one in the NFL has generated more total receiving EPA (Expected Points Added) than Pickens, according to Sports Info Solutions. And a large chunk of them come through the slant route:
- No other NFL receiver has more EPA running any kind of route than Pickens does with the slant (20.08), which he has been targeted on 25 times (Though it isn’t his highest EPA for a single route—more on that later).
- The only other wide out with more than 15 total EPA on a single route is Drake London, who totals 16.17 on curl routes.
- In EPA per target, Pickens ranks fifth running the slant despite the fact that he’s targeted so much on it.
So why do defenses not focus on taking it away? I think the reason is simple: Pickens has more than one ace under his sleeve.
The slant route might not even be George Pickens’ most lethal route
It might be the most dangerous just based on how frequent the Cowboys attack it. But Pickens has a higher EPA per target on out routes (1.22 to 0.80), which has yielded a 100% success rate for him in 12 targets. If defensive backs focus on taking the slant away, the out route is going to be right there for him all the time. Pickens usually lines up outside with a wide split. He will punish defenses that give him that avenue.
Not to mention, unless there’s safety help, inside leverage would help Pickens find more one-on-one opportunities on vertical routes as he would have easier access outside. Heck, he’d do it even with safety help. He’s one of the best contested ball catchers in the NFL.
But that’s not it. Do you want to know the route that has yielded more total EPA for Pickens than the slant? The dig route. Though it is also an in-breaking route, it’s got a vertical element to it and isn’t a “quick” route like the slant is. Even though the defensive back should prioritize inside leverage versus this route, prioritizing the slant should open up the dig if the corner overcommits to the slant.
In 13 targets, Pickens has amassed 22.05 total EPA on dig routes, with an EPA per target of 1.70. That’s more than double his efficiency per target compared to his slants.
In other words, this George Pickens problem NFL defenses are being faced with is about more than just the one route. And it’s not going away because he’ll just beat you a different way. And that’s an elite WR1 does.
Dallas Cowboys News
Dallas Cowboys’ chances of beating Lions just increased with an update the NFL world will hate to hear
It is what it is.
