Cowboys’ playoff hopes are not dead yet, but it’s starting to look like there’s only one path to getting there
Could the Dallas Cowboys make the playoffs despite their slow start?
There are two characters that come to mind when thinking about the Dallas Cowboys’ playoff chances six weeks into the 2025 NFL season. One is former Indianapolis Colts head coach Jim Mora and his famous “Playoffs!?” rant. With the way the Cowboys defense is playing, to quote Mora, “I’m surprised if we can win a game.”
Another character is a fictional one. It’s Doctor Strange holding one finger up to let Tony Stark know that there’s only one way they can beat Thanos. Why? Because it’s starting to look like there’s only one way the Cowboys can make it to the playoffs. And it’s a pretty difficult one.
Six weeks into the season, it’s starting to look like they need to win the NFC East if they aspire to make the postseason. Let’s dive in.
What do the Cowboys’ playoff odds look like today?
FTN does a great job calculating each team’s chances by simulating the season 25,000 times using its popular DVOA and DAVE ratings, which track team efficiency accounting for opponent strength and other key factors.
According to FTN, the Cowboys have a 19.2% chance of making the postseason, which is more or less in line with betting odds (DraftKings’ odds make the Cowboys’ implied probability of making the postseason 15.3%). The noteworthy part, however, is FTN’s calculations imply the Cowboys have a better chance of winning the division than making it as a wild-card.
- Cowboys’ odds of winning the division: 11.8%
- Cowboys’ chances of earning a wild-card spot: 7.4%
It goes without saying that these are longshot odds. For contrast, both the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles sit at over 40% probabilities of winning the NFC East. But while the difference between Dallas’ winning the division versus a wild-card spot doesn’t seem huge, keep in mind it’s 60% higher.
What needs to happen for the Cowboys to win the division?
A lot has to go right. And it starts with beating the Washington Commanders next Sunday at AT&T Stadium. But if we’re being honest, the defense needs to turn it around or the Cowboys will continue to lose games the offense gives them a chance to win. It’s just hard to win consistently in the NFL with the worst-defense in the league.
Additionally, the Eagles and Commanders need to continue struggling themselves. Both teams lost in Week 6 and have serious problems. If those persist, the lead they have over Dallas at the moment will become less important. For now, Cowboys vs. Commanders next week is for second place in the division.
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It’s not pretty.
