Entering Week 14, the Dallas Cowboys’ path to the playoffs is looking a lot clearer. Unfortunately, clearer isn’t synonymous with easier.

Sure, the Cowboys have nearly doubled their playoff hopes in back-to-back weeks amid a 3-0 run no one could have predicted before the trade deadline. In that span, they’ve taken down the two teams from Super Bowl LIX. In the process, the defense looked like a totally different unit, and the offense reminded us it’s elite.

Though their playoff hopes are much improved at 17% per FTN, it’s increasingly likely the Cowboys need to crown themselves NFC East champions to play in January. That will be hard to do. Let’s break it all down.

Cowboys’ likeliest playoff path goes through the NFC East

According to FTN, the Cowboys have a 17% chance of making the playoffs, which breaks down as follows:

• 9.1% chance of winning the division.
• 7.9% chance of earning a wild-card spot.

It’s close to even, but winning the NFC East appeared out of the question before Thanksgiving. Now, it’s their best chance.

Entering Week 13, the Eagles were seven-point favorites against the Chicago Bears and had a 98.4% chance of repeating as division champs. Their drop has everything to do with three things: 1) The Cowboys have unexpectedly gone 3-0 since their Week 10 bye, 2) The Eagles dropped one against the Bears days after losing to the Cowboys, and 3) The Eagles’ struggles on offense, which ranks 22nd in the NFL per RBSDM.

Could the Eagles really collapse?

With five weeks left in the 2025 season, there are a lot of different combinations that can happen. So let’s simplify by making one important assumption: Let’s pretend the Cowboys go 4-1 over their last five. That gives us a realistic, relevant scenario. If they can’t go 4-1 over their next five games, they’ll obviously need a lot of outside help to make the postseason.

If the Cowboys go 4-1, the Eagles would need to lose three of their last five for Dallas to win the division. The Cowboys would be 10-6-1 in this scenario, putting them a half-game ahead of the Eagles at 10-7 (they’re currently 8-4). The Eagles’ next five opponents? Take a gander:

• @ L.A. Chargers – Justin Herbert will be questionable, but if he can play, L.A. could realistically win it.
• vs. L.V. Raiders – Probably a W for Philly, barring a major upset.
• @ Washington Commanders – Jayden Daniels should be back for the Commanders pretty soon, and by this point, he should be in rhythm.
• @ Buffalo Bills – Beating Josh Allen on the road is never easy.
• vs. Washington Commanders

Now, I’m not saying the Eagles will finish the season 2-3, which would be a 2-5 run since Week 12, but if you take it game by game, there are reasons to believe they could. It will depend on whether or not they fix the clear issues on offense.

What about wild-card hopes?

Though the numbers say the Cowboys are more likely to make the postseason by winning the division, it’s pretty split between earning a wild-card spot. The only problem is that a handful of teams have a head start. That includes:

• 9-3 Seattle Seahawks
• 8-3-1 Green Bay Packers
• 9-4 San Francisco 49ers
• Current division leaders ahead of teams listed above: Los Angeles Rams, Chicago Bears

Bottom line, the Cowboys need to win games first. Then, we can talk about them getting help.

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