Recent Arch Manning speculation makes him likelier to wind up with the Dallas Cowboys when he declares for the NFL Draft
Let me start off by saying this: All the noise from fans and media members talking about Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning potentially joining the Dallas Cowboys in the future is just that. . . Noise.Talking heads on national TV will try to tell you Dak Prescott’s days are close to being over. They’ll do […]
Let me start off by saying this: All the noise from fans and media members talking about Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning potentially joining the Dallas Cowboys in the future is just that. . . Noise.
Talking heads on national TV will try to tell you Dak Prescott’s days are close to being over. They’ll do their best to convince you Jerry Jones—the owner who’s labeled “The Gambler” by Netflix in an upcoming documentary—will be too tempted to pass on Manning whenever the young star inevitably declares for the NFL Draft.
But let’s get serious for a second: Manning hasn’t even been a true starter for Texas. He has limited college football film. We don’t even know when he will turn pro. We don’t even know what Prescott will look like in 2025 and beyond.
In other words, anyone banging the table for Eli and Peyton Manning’s nephew to become the future face of the Cowboys is trying to boost ratings, social media views, or get clicks on their website.
However—and I hope my honesty is enough for you to forgive me for getting you to click on a Manning-Cowboys story—I will admit the scenario seems way more plausible than it did even months ago.
That’s because almost every college football insider expects Manning to remain with the Longhorns beyond the 2025 season. He is said to want a college experience and one year starting for Texas might not be enough for him to prioritize playing on Sundays.
Many are already including Manning in their 2026 Big Boards and I don’t blame them. His name carries significant weight. But there’s a bigger chance of him sticking around Texas through the 2026 season and declaring until 2027.
It would fit Manning’s style so far, too. In a I'll-transfer-if-I-can’t-play college football era, Arch stuck with Texas through the Quinn Ewers years. Though he’s capitalized on lucrative NIL opportunities, Manning has avoided drawing too much attention to himself. He’s the exact kind of player that I could see turning down the NFL to play one more year of college ball.
Why Manning declaring in 2027 would make him a likelier Cowboys target
Why should Cowboys fans care? Firstly, they shouldn't. At least not as much as many national media outlets want them to. But I'm hoping this article provides some clarity for those dreaming of a Manning quarterbacking Dallas.
For the Cowboys to realistically target Manning in the NFL Draft, one of two things must be true:
- Prescott’s play needs to drastically decline to entice the Cowboys to cut ties with him and/or to provide them with a high draft pick with which to draft Manning OR
- If the Cowboys don’t have a high draft pick, Manning‘s stock should be down enough for him to even be a possibility.
But we don't care that much about No. 2. If Manning stock plummets, then this is a totally different conversation.
Here’s the bottom line: The Cowboys can’t realistically get out of Prescott’s contract in 2026. Thus, drafting Manning would be quite tough to do. If they did release Dak, they’d need to do it with a Post-June 1 designation, and even they they’d be eating over $74 million in dead money in 2026 plus another big chunk in 2027, per Over the Cap. They’d save zero dollars in cap space. Keep in mind, Prescott has a no-trade clause.
However, a release in 2027 would be doable. It wouldn't be pretty. By then his $45 million salary would be guaranteed. But the Cowboys could manage to navigate the awful financial worries if they really want to move on, like the Denver Broncos did with Russell Wilson. Again, pretty it would not be. Yet, 2027 is the first year when it's even slightly possible as only 2028 would remain on the contract that turned him the highest-paid QB in NFL history.
With all that being said, Cowboys fans would be wise to understand Manning to Dallas is highly unlikely in all its shapes and forms. But national media outlets will try to pitch you the idea until you're sick of it.
