Back in the offseason, I didn’t have high hopes for the Dallas Cowboys to make the playoffs. I thought they’d win nine, maybe 10 games and fall just a little bit short of January football.

And yet, I was very surprised when I learned sportsbooks had the Cowboys’ projected win total at only 7.5 wins. “With Dak Prescott at quarterback?,” I thought. “There’s no way they lose that many games.”

So I inevitably tried to make sense of it and in July of last year, I wrote about five reasons why the betting world may be so low on the Cowboys. Months later, it turns out the books were shockingly accurate, as the Cowboys won seven games and tied another—which for standings purposes means 7.5 wins. They were spot on.

And now, as some sort of an autopsy of the Cowboys’ season, I wanted to review the reasons I had laid out for Vegas being so low on Dallas and whether or not they were the reason for the team’s 7-9-1 record. I think only one of the five became a full reality.

1. Uncertainty around first-year head coach Brian Schottenheimer

Did it matter? Not that much.

I think Schottenheimer had an overall good year, and there was more positive than negative to take away from his first year running the offense. The Cowboys had a Top 5 scoring unit, they led George Pickens’ very best year playing football, and Dak Prescott had one of his best seasons in his 11-year NFL career.

Maybe the Cowboys weren’t perfect on red zone situations and the play-calling was off in high-stakes scenarios. But overall, I’m very encouraged by what we saw from Schotty.

2. Dak Prescott health concerns

Did it matter? Not in the slightest.

Prescott played the full season and did so at a very high level despite mediocre pass protection on the edges of the offensive line. But if the biggest concern around Dak was his health following a stretch of years with many injuries, fans should be feeling good about Prescott’s health after his second full season since 2023.

3. Defense could be a weakness

Did it matter? Yes.

I mean, this is what I wrote back in July: “I’m not sure the Cowboys did anything to make the fanbase feel better about an obvious issue for the team: Stopping the run. Dallas is running it back with Mazi Smith at nose tackle—this time in a one-gap scheme that’s unlikely to benefit his play style—and the defensive ends are better pass rushers than they are run defenders. Meanwhile, DeMarvion Overshown isn’t playing until Thanksgiving and we don’t quite know what the cornerback lineup is going to look like. I’m not saying it will be bad, but there’s potential for defensive decline if we’re being honest.”

Well, maybe I expected the defense to be bad but little did I know it was going to be one of the worst defenses in franchise history.

Out of the five reasons I listed for Vegas being low on the Cowboys, this is the one that did the trick. Under DC Matt Eberflus, Dallas allowed over 500 points for the first time ever. And the more you dig into the stats, the worse they get. So why don’t we move on instead?

4. NFC East is likely being won by the Eagles

Did it matter? Kind of, but not really.

I mean, the Eagles did win the division. But they were far from a juggernaut after winning the Super Bowl. So much so that they were one-and-done despite hosting in the playoffs. But the whole idea behind this reason was that the Cowboys may lose out on a wild card spot even if they had a winning record. But that’s not what kept them out of the postseason. A losing record did.

5. Punishing schedule stretch late in the year

Did it matter? A little bit, but not on the way we thought it would.

The Cowboys closed the year 1-4. In the original article, I worried more about the previous matchups, however, the Eagles and Chiefs. After beating those two, the Cowboys lost to the struggling Detroit Lions, the J.J. McCarthy-led Minnesota Vikings, and offensive-line-less Los Angeles Chargers. Not to mention, they couldn’t stop Jaxson Dart’s Giants.

It wasn’t as brutal of a schedule as it appeared to be at first. But the Cowboys still didn’t get the wins.

Now we move on

Long story short, a lot went wrong for the Cowboys. But I will say it seems like only one of the five above reasons feels like it came fully true: The defense being bad. That’s the one that turned out to derail Dallas’ hopes. Perhaps that’s a good thing, as there’s one thing to fixate on.

The first step toward fixing things is hiring the right defensive coordinator. The Cowboys have already interviewed or are scheduled to interview six candidates.

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