The Denver Broncos are at a crossroads at their quarterback position, and it's a huge $37 million series of questions. Will Russell Wilson be the starter over the final two weeks, against the Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders? Are the Broncos willing to risk even more their future financial outlook trying an almost impossible late-season run to make it to the postseason?

How it got here

Last year, they traded significant capital for Russell Wilson and gave him a big five-year, $242.6 million extension. It was a disaster from the get go. This year, though, Wilson played better under head coach Sean Payton.

But the level of play in 2023 wasn't as good as the Broncos thought they would get when they pulled off the trade either. His 77.5 PFF grade was better than his 66.2 last year, but nothing close to his prime years in Seattle — by PFF grade, 2023 is Wilson's ninth best season in the NFL, or the fourth worst if you are a glass half empty person.

The biggest question to answer this season is how the Broncos will approach the final two games of the season. Theoretically, the team is still fighting for a playoff spot. But, according to The New York Times tool, they have a 6% chance of making it. It's unrealistic to move on from Wilson in 2024 for financial reasons, but an injury would create even worse complicating circumstances for the Broncos' future.

Contract outlook

Analyzing Russell Wilson's contract, there are pros and cons of moving on right after the season. The dead money would be a tough pill to swallow. The team would have $85 million in cap hit in money already paid that hasn't been accounted for yet. To make it viable, the Broncos could designate Wilson as a post June 1st release, making the dead money hit over two years — $35.4 million in 2024, $49.6 million in 2025.

Practically, there would be no cap savings next year and only $5.8 million in 2025. But the cap savings would be huge after that — $58.4 million in 2026, $53.4 million in 2027, $54.4 million in 2028. Considering the level Wilson has played since he arrived in Denver, moving on is probably worth it — or at least keeping the door open.

However, $37 million of Wilson's 2025 base salary become guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2024 league year, in March. And the Broncos couldn't cut Wilson before that if he gets hurt. Allowing the quarterback to play under these circumstances is to take a major risk.

Option

The quarterback alternative is Jarrett Stidham, who went through a similar situation last year. He started the last two games for the Las Vegas Raiders because the team wouldn't want to risk Derek Carr suffering an injury. They achieved that, and Carr ended up being released after the season.

The Broncos haven't announced their plans at this point, and it's hard to imagine Sean Payton giving up on the season when the team still has a shot. But a Russell Wilson injury would complicate things even more — be it for a release or maybe a Brock Osweiler-esque trade, when the original team gives up draft capital for another one to absorb a contract.

It's a thoroughly complicated situation, and it might be impacted by how the Broncos see Russell Wilson with the team for 2024 and beyond.

The next two weeks will show a lot more of what the franchise wants to do than two regular games would indicate.

NFL analyst thinks Broncos HC Sean Payton still doesn’t trust Russell Wilson

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