Here's what NFL mock drafts are saying the Denver Broncos should do in first round of the 2024 NFL Draft
NFL Draft season is in full swing, and the Denver Broncos are all of a sudden at the center of the conversation when it comes to what will happen in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Should they take a quarterback to replace Russell Wilson? Should they go with an cornerback? Edge defender? […]
NFL Draft season is in full swing, and the Denver Broncos are all of a sudden at the center of the conversation when it comes to what will happen in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Should they take a quarterback to replace Russell Wilson? Should they go with an cornerback? Edge defender? There may not be one "right" answer, but here's what the last 100+ NFL mock drafts are saying they could or should do.
In case you missed it, here at A to Z Sports we scraped data from over 100 mock drafts over the last three weeks to see what we could learn. Things are already shifting drastically since the NFL Combine. What does that mean for the Denver Broncos? We'll get to that in a moment. But first, if you want a quick snapshot of the Top 120 prospects via recent mock draft data I'll be referencing, here's a quick run down I put together in a thread on X (Twitter):
Denver Broncos First Round Targets
Over the past few weeks and 100+ mock drafts here are the most commonly selected first round picks for the Denver Broncos:
- Bo Nix, QB Oregon
- J.J. McCarthy, QB Michigan
- Terrion Arnold, CB Alabama
- Dallas Turner, EDGE Alabama
- Jared Verse, EDGE Florida State
- Quinyon Mitchell, CB Toledo
Quarterback First Round Targets
Just this week Bo Nix (Oregon) has seen his betting odds shift dramatically in favor of being selected by the Denver Broncos. I (along with several others) confirmed he did meet with the Broncos at the NFL Combine, and when the team decided to move on from Russell Wilson officially this week rumors immediately started swirling that Nix was a real possibility. And thus, Nix immediately became the most mocked quarterback to the Broncos over the past several days.
However, the Nix noise feels forced. He has not been rising at all throughout the draft season. His mediocre Senior Bowl showing and misses in the deep ball portion at the NFL Combine certainly didn't help. And he's also been consistently going outside round one of mock drafts (currently ranked 37th among all prospects in recent large sample data). This recent leap up to early first round projection this week is simply an overreaction to the Broncos' Russell Wilson news.
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J.J. McCarthy could also be an option, but his rising hype has also contributed to the Nix narrative. McCarthy now seems out of reach for the Broncos unless they choose to trade up. The Falcons and Vikings draft ahead of the Broncos and are both considering selecting a quarterback in this draft.
If the Broncos want a quarterback via the draft it seems they'll likely have to overpay to trade up or reach significantly for Bo Nix. Neither option sounds great.
Cornerback First Round Targets
Pat Surtain II is a phenomenal cornerback. Ja'Quan McMillan is at least a solid asset in run defense. But it's pretty clear the Broncos could benefit from adding a cornerback.
Terrion Arnold (Alabama) has been a pretty consistent option in mock drafts for the Broncos, and he had a fairly impressive NFL Combine, but there may be a new CB1 in the class now.
Quinyon Mitchell posted a 97th percentile Speed Score and a 91st percentile Athletic Composite Score at the NFL Combine. He was already trending up after being one of the best off-man cover corners in the nation last fall. Then he dominated the Senior Bowl, proving to be a force in press and nickel situations as well. Just this week he's surfaced as a potential target for Denver.
If he's available at pick 12 Mitchell (the new potential CB1 in the class) could be an incredible player to target. Pairing Mitchell with Surtain would instantly give the Broncos one of the best cornerback duos in the NFL.
Edge Defender First Round Targets
Dallas Turner (Alabama) is most likely to be off the board by pick 12 after he dominated the NFL Combine, posting a 99th percentile Athletic Composite Score. Turner has become the best bet for the Falcons selection at pick 8, or even potentially earlier in some mock drafts. He should be one of the the fan favorites to pick given that he has the most impressive athletic profile and second best pass rush rates stats (almost 20% pressure rate) among all edge defenders in the class.
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NFL Combine winners for DL
Jared Verse (Florida State) is now widely considered the second best edge prospect in the class after he put up a 92nd percentile Athletic Composite Score at the NFL Combine. It's impressive that he tested that well after adding significant weight this past offseason. Maintaining athleticism through dramatic body composition changes can be difficult.
Verse racked up nine sacks in his final six games last fall and posted the fourth highest pass rush pressure rate in this draft class. He may be the best bet if the Broncos are looking to add help on the edge.
In conclusion, it seems that the Broncos do truly have three different positional options to target on draft day. Going after quarterback may be the most difficult, but depending on how free agency plays out they may not have much of a choice. Edge rusher would certainly help them too. However, the quickest way to an elite defense may be adding Quinyon Mitchell. He's a shutdown corner who has quickly become the CB1 according to many NFL Draft analysts. The Broncos truly could have the best starting cornerback tandem in the league if they select him to go along with Pat Surtain II.
