4 Lions that can have most success against the Cowboys
This game is just huge. It's easy to just kind of feel like the Detroit Lions season is over since they accomplished such a big regular season goal, but here's a chance to get an even bigger one. If you want that first seed, you're going to have to fight for it and beat the […]
This game is just huge. It's easy to just kind of feel like the Detroit Lions season is over since they accomplished such a big regular season goal, but here's a chance to get an even bigger one. If you want that first seed, you're going to have to fight for it and beat the Cowboys.
Here's four Lions that stats and analytics say have the best chance at helping the Lions win their fight on Saturday. Let's start with a guy who's been featured in this series a lot this year.
Aidan Hutchinson
I know that Lions fans are hoping that Hutchinson can get some more sacks this year, but his game is just much deeper than that. He is putting immense pressure on quarterbacks right now. He's logged 87 pressures this season. That's third in the NFL among all defensive players. Right behind Nick Bosa and Micah Parsons.
While that's not a stat you see on box scores, it's pretty important. Take Sunday's win over the Vikings into account. It was Hutchinson who got Nick Mullens out of the pocket and rushing his final throw to Justin Jefferson. That pressure caused a duck throw and an interception.
Why does this matter this week? This is why:
Cowboys right tackle Terence Steele is struggling with pressures this season. Only two offensive linemen have allowed more pressures than Steele in 2023. He's allowed a total of 49.
The other thing that could help Hutchinson is that their elite left tackle Tyron Smith could be out for this game. He missed last weeks game and then missed the entire week of practice this week. Still, he's questionable for Saturday. So there's a chance he might play.
Jahmyr Gibbs
The Bills put up 266 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns on the Cowboys two weeks ago. James Cook had 179 yards and a touchdown himself. This is not the first time that the Cowboys have shown that they can be beat on the ground, they've just largely masked it playing against lower tier run games. Here's the run DVOA of the teams the Cowboys have played and the yards they put up on Dallas:
- Giants: 31st and 108 yards
- Jets: 32nd and 64 yards
- Cardinals: 9th and 222 yards
- Patriots: 23rd and 53 yards
- 49ers: 2nd and 170 yards
- Chargers: 28th and 53 yards
- Rams: 7th and 92 yards
- Eagles: 5th and 109 yards
- Giants: 31st and 111 yards
- Panthers: 26th and 110 yards
- Commanders: 18th and 75 yards
- Seahawks: 20th and 72 yards
- Eagles: 5th and 106 yards
- Bills: 6th and 266 yards
- Dolphins: 3rd and 91 yards.
Now that I put all those numbers on paper in front of me, they really don't look that great. Even some of the bad teams are able to move the ball on the ground, the issue is that they probably had to abandon the run game since they got down so fast. You can see though that there's a big difference in the outcome when they face good rushing teams. The Cowboys are 2-6 when they face a team with a run DVOA higher than 10th. The Lions are fourth in run DVOA.
The other thing and the reason why I choose Gibbs instead of Montgomery is this:
The Cowboys are 10th in explosive run plays allowed and no running back has more explosive run plays than Jahmyr Gibbs. Things could be lined up for him to get more on Saturday.
Jameson Williams
I am not about to compare Jameson Williams to Tyreek Hill. Not yet at least. Maybe in a couple years. Theoretically they play the same type of ball and that's the fast type of ball. Hill burned the Cowboys last week for 99 yards on nine catches. He averaged 11 yards per carry. It's that speed that allowed him to get separation and get open. Jameson Williams is the only other receiver in the NFL with that kind of speed.
The Cowboys do have a pretty good pass defense, but they allow their fair share of explosive pass plays. It's going to be a tough day in the pass game, but if the Lions can get the run game going and set up play action, the Cowboys have allowed 7 play action touchdowns season. That's second in the NFL. Which brings me to our fourth guy.
Jared Goff
This isn’t going to be the easiest game for Goff. People talk a lot about how he needs everything around him to work in order for him to work. While I think that’s a dumb statement considering every quarterback requires the help of his teammates. This is a case where Goff is going to need that help from the run game to set up play action. Play action is super important because that’s how the Lions are going to win this game. Here’s the play action completion % for quarterbacks on teams that have beaten the Cowboys.
- Josh Dobbs: 71.1%
- Brock Purdy: 77.5%
- Jalen Hurts: 58.5%
- Josh Allen: 69.9%
- Tua Tagovailoa: 74.2%
Jared Goff has a play action pass completion % of 71.1%. He's also thrown the fourth most play action touchdowns this year with seven. He's also one of the few quarterbacks who hasn't thrown at least one play action interception.
The Cowboys did beat a team that featured a player that was really good at play action passes. That was Geno Smith. He completes 77.3% of his play action passes. While the Cowboys won, it was the second most points they allowed in a game this season with 35.
If the Lions can get the run game going, they can help set Goff up on play action and they can do some damage in this game.
Ndamukong Suh takes shot at Cowboys while hyping Lions
When I started covering the Lions in 2014, I talked a lot about Ndamukong Suh. It was hard not to. He was in the final year of his contract and everyone wanted to know what his next move was going to be. Eventually that move was to leave the Lions and head to Miami. I […]
