Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images and Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images
Right now, we’re stuck in the middle of a limbo between free agency and the 2026 NFL Draft. This is the perfect time to run a what-if scenario that might explain to Detroit Lions fans just how badly they don’t want the thing they think they want.
Lions fans wanted their team to trade for Maxx Crosby so badly this year. They wanted it more than anything, and the fact that it didn’t happen meant the Lions failed in the offseason. What I want to do today is get in our Marvel time machine and travel to a different universe — one where the Lions had traded for Crosby this year. Let’s see what it looks like in 2026 and the future.
Lions trade for Maxx Crosby
Lions get: Maxx Crosby Raiders get: 17th pick in the 2026 NFL Draft and a 2027 first-round pick
Ok, Crosby is here now. But the Lions aren’t done yet. They still very much want to make sure they keep the four All-Pro/Pro Bowl players that they drafted in 2023, so it’s extension time. Like the real world that we live in now, these guys are going to get market-setting deals. So let’s do that. Here’s what each guy is getting and what their 2026 cap hit is:
Player
Years
Total
AAV
2026 Cap Hit
Jahmyr Gibbs
4
$64M
$16M
$6M
Sam LaPorta
4
$76M
$19M
$7M
Jack Campbell
4
$72M
$18M
$6M
Brian Branch
4
$84M
$21M
$8M
Hefty amounts for all these players. But it’s worth it because, again, these are All-Pro/Pro Bowl-level guys. So it’s the right decision. These are pretty close to the numbers you’ll likely see all four of these players actually get.
So with these cap hits and the addition of Crosby’s cap hit, the Lions are now down to about $7 million in cap space. They can’t make this work, right? You have to be able to pay the draft class even though you don’t have a first-round pick. You also want to have money for in-season transactions because, realistically, you’re going to need to sign players here and there because of injuries.
So the next move for Detroit is to restructure that Crosby contract to lower his 2026 cap hit. Ok, beep boop beep, that’s done. Here’s the 2026 layout now.
Category
Amount
Starting Cap Space
~$52M
Crosby (restructured)
-$8M
Extensions (4 players)
-$27M
Remaining Space
~$17M
Ok, that looks good. The Lions are in good shape in 2026. They have money to pay the draft class, they have money for in-season transactions, everyone got paid, and they’ve added a second All-Pro edge rusher.
Now maybe they win a Super Bowl. But probably not because, as ESPN’s Bill Barnwell showed in his study earlier this week, only 12.4% of 500 free agents signed between 2013 and 2025 exceeded expectations after they signed. Only 3.6% of them had Pro Bowl seasons, and only 0.6% of them had superstar seasons. The method of signing big free agents or trading for big-time players has just not proven to work very often.
But the Lions are tied to Crosby now, and now that the 2026 season is over, the real pain begins. Because yeah, you were able to restructure Crosby in 2026, but all you did was kick the can down the road.
Category
Amount
Base Commitments
~$210M
Crosby (restructured hit)
$35.5M
Gibbs
$14M
LaPorta
$17M
Campbell
$15M
Branch
$18M
Top Additions Total
$99.5M
Projected Cap
~$285M
Total Commitments
~$309M
Cap Deficit
-$24M
Now you’re in big trouble. You’re going to have to start cutting some players because you have to make up a $24 million cap deficit. Forget signing any free agents to help in 2027. You’re just trying to get cap compliant at this point. Maybe you can restructure some guys and move more money down the road, but you’re still not going to get a lot of money out of it. It gets worse in 2028.
Player
Cap Hit
Crosby
$37.5M
Gibbs
$16M
LaPorta
$20M
Campbell
$18M
Branch
$21M
Top 5 Total
$112.5M
You’re committing 40% of your cap space to five players, and Crosby is taking up the majority of it, and he’s 31-years old at this point. His career is likely winding down if it hasn’t already.
The year 2029 rolls around, and the bomb has been fully set off. The Lions are in cap hell because they restructured Crosby and moved money down the road. Now they’re the Miami Dolphins. The team that has an NFL record of nearly $180 million in dead cap right now has to find a way to completely rebuild its roster from top to bottom with a new general manager, a new coaching staff, new players, and not a lot of money. They’ll likely be doing this for a while.
In the end, Brad Holmes gets fired because he drove the Lions into this hell with one trade, and Dan Campbell gets fired because he couldn’t win the Super Bowl in the one year the Lions had to do it before they started cutting all of his talented players so the team could be cap compliant. It’s hell. It turns a flexible roster into a ticking clock that peaks fast and collapses hard.
