Lions are very likely to be awarded a fourth-round compensatory pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, here’s how
This is quite a nice little development
Let’s start here. It’s important to note that the NFL’s compensatory pick formula is one of the weirdest things in the league. So, nothing is set in stone. With that said, the Detroit Lions are very likely about to get themselves an extra fourth-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Here’s how:
D.J. Reed’s injury return timetable should net the Lions a fourth-round pick for the loss of Carlton Davis
In October, Nick Korte of Over The Cap, a compensatory pick expert, put out this tweet that explained the Lions could get a compensatory fourth-round pick if cornerback D.J. Reed continues to miss time with an injury.
This is all because Carlton Davis left the Lions as a compensatory free agent. What that means is he’s a player who left a team after his contract ended. Reed is also a CFA. When a CFA replaces a CFA, it usually cancels out a compensatory pick. But if the replacing CFA doesn’t play a certain number of snaps, the formula views that as a loss for the Lions. They lost a healthy player and got an injured one.
At the time of Korte’s tweet, he also explained that Reed was at 48% of the required snaps and the Lions were just missing the pick. If he stayed below that, they could potentially get it. Well, now we know that the timeline for Reed has shifted quite a bit.
He’s eligible to come back from injury right now, but Lions head coach Dan Campbell said last Friday that his return was likely early December. We don’t know if that’s playing a game in early December or returning to practice in early December. Either way, he would be below the percentage that Korte talked about.
Even if Reed returned on Dec. 1 and played the rest of the season’s games, he’d still be at like 25% of the snaps needed to counter the formula. So, it’s not set in stone until it is, but the Lions are very likely to get this pick.
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