I struck a bit of a nerve with Detroit Lions fans on Thursday night when I posted this tweet. 

https://twitter.com/AtoZ_Payton/status/1735474261530141022

First off, I think this was taken the wrong way. I think people think I was saying that Jared Goff is better than Matthew Stafford. That's not what I was saying. What I'm saying is that I don't see a drastic difference between the two of them. The separation between them is a lot closer than the separation from Goff to someone like Patrick Mahomes. 

I think you can just get a lot of the very same thing out of both of these guys. I did a little stat stuff on Twitter on Thursday. Particularly this Stathead comparison of Stafford from 2016 to 2023 vs Goff from 2016 to 2023.  

Presented with absolutely no comment at all. Stafford from 2016 to now vs Goff from 2016 to now. pic.twitter.com/6L02IgOU6A

— Mike Payton (@AtoZ_Payton) December 15, 2023

For me, this was good enough. I clearly feel a much different way about stats than others do. You can say "watch the tape," but to me, stats are a recording of what's on tape to an extent. I get that analytics can tell the whole  story, so what I'll do here is compare the analytics for Goff and Stafford from 2016 to 2023. Let's start with deep passing. 

Deep Passing

One of the big things that people brough up is that Matthew Stafford has a cannon for an arm. I can't disagree. We've seen him bomb that thing a million times it seems. Let's take a look at the deep passing stats and see what tell us. We'll be using Pro Football Focus and will be using their methodology of tracking deep passes. Which is passes of 20 air yards or more.  Here's the numbers:

Player	Comp-Att	Yards	TD-Int	Comp%
Jared Goff	137-373	4,485	32-19	35.6
Matthew Stafford	188-454	6,901	46-24	40.9

Ok, well that tells some things. Stafford is definitely throwing that thing deep a lot more than Goff is. He's also connecting and guys are getting yards for him. Goff is connecting too, just at a lower rate. 

This season has been interesting becasue their stat lines are pretty similar. Here's Goff and Stafford's 2023 deep passing stats:

Player	Comp-Att	Yards	TD-INT	Comp%
Jared Goff	18-36	555	4-4	50
Matthew Stafford	23-48	753	3-1	47.9

 Stafford is connecting here a little more for sure, but not by a ton. Interestingly enough, they're both throwing similar deep passes. Stafford is averaging 15.7 yards per attempt and Goff is averaging 15.4. 

The reason I bring up this is because this is year eight of Goff's career. Stafford had some trouble with the deep ball in terms of actually completing it in his first seven years and really settled in during year eight. Maybe it takes time to settle in with something like throwing deep for some? I'm not sure. Here's Goff's first eight years in deep passing vs Stafford's first eight years in deep passing. 

Player	Comp-Att	Yards	TD-INT	Comp %
Jared Goff	137-373	4,485	32-19	35.6
Matthew Stafford	151-466	5,300	46-30	28.3

Goff is never going to throw the deep ball like Stafford. I fully get that. Stafford's arm is better. But They both seem to have trouble getting the ball into the hands of the receivers in their first eight years. Maybe this is something that Goff can get better at over time. His numbers show that he has. Perhaps that will continue.  

Passing under pressure

Passing under pressure is the other one where people really felt strongly about Stafford being better. The idea is that Goff just folds when it happens. Let's take a look at the pressure stats from 2016 to 2023 for both guys. 

Player	Comp-Att	Yards	TD-INT	Comp%
Jared Goff	591-1,214	7,051	39-39	44.9
Matthew Stafford	585-1,339	7,065	43-24	49.9

This wowed me. I was actually a little floored. Stafford has more touchdowns and less interceptions. Otherwise, everything is nearly the same. I also expected Stafford to be the more pressured quarterback and he hasn't been. Goff has faced pressure on 36.5% of his career drop backs and Stafford has faced pressure on 32.1% of his. 

Stafford is the better quarterback here. We know that, again that's not what argument is. The argument is that the difference isn't that drastic. I think the numbers show that for the most part. The 39 interceptions are bad, but Stafford threw 33 interceptions under pressure in his first eight years, so maybe this whole passing under pressure thing is hard. 

I will say that as far as this year goes, Goff has completed 52.7% of his passes under pressure and Stafford has completed 42.3% of his.

Deeper analytic stuff people are asking for

Ok, I was asked to add turnover worthy plays and adjusted completion percentage to this story. Here you go: 

Player	Turnover worthy plays	Adjusted completion %
Jared Goff	156	75.6
Matthew Stafford	140	72.6

Clutch

Ok, last part. As we know, Matthew Stafford is pretty clutch. He's one of the best comeback quarterbacks of all time. He wins hands down here. 

With that said, I don't think that means Goff isn't clutch. Goff has been in the lead a lot more in his career. That feels like a good thing to me by the way. But Goff has proven in Detroit that he can be clutch and he can live up to the moment. 

The touchdown to St. Brown in the closing seconds against the Vikings, the first down to DJ Chark in Green Bay last year, Leading the final drives against the Chiefs and Chargers, The final two throws against the Saints a couple weeks ago and don't forget overcoming three interceptions to lead the Lions down the field for two touchdowns to beat the Bears. 

Stafford's clutch looks a lot cooler than Goff's clutch, but Goff has it. 

Are gloves a big problem for Jared Goff?

I often feel like my parents have no idea what I do for a living. They're always asking if I have tickets to the game or if I'm bringing my wife to the away game or if she's allowed in the press box. I have never felt more like I couldn't explain my job to […]