The "running backs don't matter" discourse has dominated the NFL for the last decade. What started as a provocative overstatement by the analytics community has been popularized over the years, and with a fair share of truth. For the most part, running backs are replaceable — or at least more replaceable than other positions in football.

That, though, has not been the case with the 2023 version of the Green Bay Packers. Aaron Jones is really valuable for the team, and the offense is materially worse when he's out. Superficially, they have 29 points per game in the two games he played, and 18.3 points per game when he didn't. Deepening the analysis, it's still the same conclusion for the most part.

"I hope this give us a little confidence," Jones said about his return elevating the entire team. "But we know it takes all 11. I just know when I get in the huddle, the guys, they listen to me. They see me as a leader. So I hope I can bring a spark to them and give them that sense of confidence and we can just go out there and play."

That's not necessarily a knock on AJ Dillon, Emanuel Wilson, and Patrick Taylor. Aaron Jones has been, and this is not an exaggeration, one of the most efficient runners in NFL history. Among qualified running backs, he's tied for fourth all-time in yards per rush (5.1), just behind Jamaal Charles, Nick Chubb, and Jim Brown. Not a bad company, right?

The Packers offensive line in general hasn't been good at run blocking this season. They are 29th in run block win rate, according to ESPN's metric, which is a natural consequence of a team model prioritizing pass block abilities for their linemen. But even in such a disadvantageous position, Jones is still much more effective than his counterparts.

Jones has had 4.2 yards per carry, leading the Packers RB group. AJ Dillon (3.0), Patrick Taylor (2.8, now with the New England Patriots), and Emanuel Wilson (2.2) are well behind.

It's a sum of factors. While there's a new perception that running backs are mostly products of their environments, the Packers offense is a good example that a good player at the position makes his environment look better too.

"Anytime you're missing the best player on your team, it's gonna be tough to play without him," starting right guard Jon Runyan said. "Having him back there, he's just really good. He's gonna get through the smallest holes and explode out there for 12, 15 yards."

And that's a big factor. Against the Chicago Bears in week 1, Jones didn't have many snaps and then got injured. He was also on a pitch count against the Detroit Lions. But even so, he was still able to outproduce Dillon at generating explosives. The 2020 second-round pick has 64 carries, and none of them went for more than 15 yards.

Passing offense

Jones is also a big part of the passing offense. Usually, receptions from running backs are not as productive as targets to tight ends and, especially, wide receivers. And in fact Jones has lowered his average depth of target throughout his career. But he's still able to be impactful. In week 1, he had two monster receptions that basically decided the Chicago game in the Packers favor.

Style of runner

Another important aspect for Jones' success and Dillon's recent struggles is how the Packers offensive line is built. They've looked bad, for sure, but that's also related to what Dillon can run and what the line is better at. Dillon is a powerful, slow runner, so he's better running behind duo, inside zone, and gap schemes.

"I think the run game as offensive linemen, especially the inside part, inside zone, those downhill gap schemes, it's more of a feel," Runyan mentioned. "The more you commit to the run game, the more you feel it out, the easier it gets later in the game. So, when it's time to lean on that in a short-yardage play, you know it's coming."

The Packers don't have the horses to do that at a high level, and it's not smart in today's NFL to spend a full game running at a wall. With Jones, they can lean more on outside zone and pin pull. Speed is the king here, which fits better with the Packers personnel and with what generally is an extremely pass-heavy era.

It's uncertain if Aaron Jones will be back against the Denver Broncos on Sunday, as he's been limited at practice — still because of that hamstring injury he's handling since week 1. But if he does play, the Packers offense can have a real leap. That's what they need, especially on early downs, to have more favorable situations and to make life easier for Jordan Love and the young passing weapons.

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