One year ago, there was a general assumption that defensive coordinator Joe Barry would be let go after the 2022 season. After all, the Green Bay Packers had heavily invested in their defense, just to finish up the year as the 20th best unit in the league, according to DVOA.

But head coach Matt LaFleur saw improvement over the second half of the season, and decided to keep Bary for a third year on his job.

Don't be surprised if that's the case once again. It might sound like a mid-season bold take, and it's supposed to be that, but it would also be aligned with the Packers modus operandi.

"Our defense was getting better. It was progressing," LaFleur told reporters earlier this season when asked to justify his decision of keeping Barry. "I thought Joe was doing a good job of communicating with our players. I thought our staff was doing a great job together, putting our guys in a better situation, having just more clarity on what it is we wanted to be and our play style. I thought it got better. I felt like that was in the best interest of us to bring all those (coaches) back."

Last offseason, there was only one significant coaching change. Jerry Gray, the former defensive backs coach and passing game coordinator, left to be an assistant head coach/defense with the Atlanta Falcons. Greg Williams was hired to replace him as the passing game coordinator, while Ryan Downard was promoted from safeties coach to defensive backs coach.

There hasn't been a significant improvement from the Packers defense. According to DVOA, by the way, they are worse: 22nd through eight games. However, the little signs of improvement during the year might be enough for an extremely conservative team when it's time to make changes.

Organizational issues

And it's not just Matt LaFleur. Between 2011 and 2017, Dom Capers led the Packers defense to two top-10 seasons in DVOA — 8th in 2012, 9th in 2015. But other than that, it was mediocre at best: 26th in 2011, 31st in 2013, 16th in 2014, 21st in 2016, 24th in 2017. Mike McCarthy just changed his DC in 2018, when his own job was at risk, hiring Mike Pettine.

Capers had done a better job than Barry, but this is not the main point. The Packers are more patient than the average NFL team. Sometimes it works out great — do you remember when people wanted to cut Davante Adams in 2015? But sometimes people are right. Joe Barry's track record as a defensive coordinator isn't great, and this is the first time he stays more than two years with the same team in this position.

As a DC, Joe Barry had these rankings: 30th with the 2007 Lions, 31st with the 0-16 2008 Lions, 21st with the 2015 Washington Redskins, and 25th with the 2016 Washington Redskins. With the Packers, he was 22nd in 2021 and 20th in 2022.

But…

Over the last two weeks, against the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams, the Packers were able to stop the run — what seemed impossible. They are, between weeks 8 and 9, fifth in rush EPA in the entire league. Obviously, the matchups were favorable, but we have to admit it's a significant progress because the Packers hadn't been able to stop the run against anybody.

DVOA is a valuable metric because it takes the opponents into consideration. But if you want to make a case for keeping Joe Barry, and LaFleur very well might, the easier schedule has created positive overall numbers. The Packers are third in fewest TDs allowed, fifth in fewest yards allowed, sixth in yards per play, sixth in passing yards, eighth in total yards, ninth in red zone defense, and 12th in pressure percentage.

And there's another point. The offense has been bad, which caused the team to lose two games in which the defense allowed less than 20 points. It's harder for Matt LaFler to fire his hand-picked defensive coordinator when his own unit hasn't performed well.

It's a difficult position for Matt LaFleur to be in. If his own job is at risk, maybe he's more willing to make changes. But the Packers don't tend to operate like that, and you shouldn't be surprised if Joe Barry is back in 2024.

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