ESPN predictive model identifies five likely Packers first-round targets in the 2025 NFL Draft, and one of them is a shocker

When a team picks late in the NFL Draft, it's nearly impossible to predict with any type of precision how exactly things will shake out. Trades, surprises, last-minute changes might affect every subsequent decision and create a cascade effect.However, trying to project the picks based on needs, historic trends, and overall value is a useful […]

Wendell Ferreira NFL News Writer
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North Carolina Tar Heels running back Omarion Hampton (28) with the ball as Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets defensive back Warren Burrell (4) defends in the fourth quarter at Kenan Memorial Stadium.
Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

When a team picks late in the NFL Draft, it's nearly impossible to predict with any type of precision how exactly things will shake out. Trades, surprises, last-minute changes might affect every subsequent decision and create a cascade effect.

However, trying to project the picks based on needs, historic trends, and overall value is a useful exercise ahead of the first round.

ESPN has a great tool for these purposes. And based on their predictor, there are five players with a significant chance of being taken by the Packers with the 23rd overall pick—this considers players that could be available, Packers needs, among other factors.

ESPN
ESPN

DT Derrick Harmon, Oregon

Harmon has been frequently mocked to the Packers and, in fact, he is a great fit for what the Packers need and tend to like. Disruptive, Harmon can create a lot of havoc from the interior and is a good piece for Jeff Hafley's scheme.

Moreover, the Packers have a mid-term need at the position. Kenny Clark is a cut candidate a year from now, and Devonte Wyatt is entering the final season of his rookie deal.


EDGE Shemar Stewart, Texas A&M

This is another classic Packers type. Ultra athletic player, with all the physical tools to be a high-impact player. However, the production is not there. There's an argument that his 4.5 sacks throughout three college seasons don't reveal what he really does, because that's just what Texas A&M's defensive scheme would ask of him. But the pass rush win rate and true pass set pass rush grade are not overwhelming either for a first-round prospect. But the tape is enticing, and probably better than Lukas Van Ness'.


RB Omarion Hampton, North Carolina

That's the biggest surprise, and taking a first-round wide receiver would be a shock. The Packers still have Josh Jacobs under contract for three seasons and he's 27, and Green Bay spent a third-round pick last year on MarShawn Lloyd. Taking Hampton so early would be a wild misuse of resources, beyond the discussion about running back value.

In a vacuum, though, Hampton is a great prospect. He's elite in PFF's elusive rating (128.1), yards after contact per attempt, and missed tackles forced.


WR Matthew Golden, Texas

Golden is the second wide receiver on the consensus big board, but in a poor WR class compared to the last few years, he can be available in the 20s. Even though he's not big, Golden played the majority of his college snaps as a boundary receiver, with strong contested catch numbers.


EDGE Mike Green, Marshall

Green is the opposite of Stewart. He didn't test so it's hard to quantify his athleticism, but he's lighter than what the Packers tend to prefer. However, the production and the film are both undeniably special. He has a big arsenal of pass rush moves, and plays with a violence at the line of scrimmage that makes life hard for offensive linemen.