The Green Bay Packers are really close to the playoffs. According to The New York Times playoff predictor, Green Bay has a 99% chance of making the postseason.

Even if the Packers lose every remaining game, they'd still have a 21% chance of making the playoffs. If they win one of five, it goes to something around 80% and 90%, depending on which team they beat. This is how comfortable the situation is.

So you could think that the Detroit Lions game on Thursday is not as big as it might appear. Well, for more than one reason, the game is really that big.

Division chances

The Packers lost to the Lions in Week 9. So a new loss on Thursday would secure Detroit the head-to-head advantage over Green Bay. A three-game advantage in the standings would actually be a four-game difference, with four weeks left to play in the regular season.

The New York Times projects that the Packers would have a smaller than 1% chance of winning the NFC North title with a loss on Thursday.

However, a win makes the situation much more attainable. It would be a one-game difference, without any head-to-head advantage. So the Packers' chances of winning the North would jump from 4% to 10%.

Wild card race

While the Packers still hope to fight for the division, the more likely scenario is a wild card spot. And even with a loss to the Lions, the Packers would have a 98% chance of making the postseason — it'll be over 99% with a win.

The NFC playoff race is not that exciting at this point. Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, Minnesota Vikings, and Green Bay Packers have at least a 99% chance to make it. The Washington Commanders are at 85%.

Barring wild changes over the last final month of the regular season, the Vikings, Packers, and Commanders will be the wild card teams.

The big contests over the next few weeks will be for divisional titles in the South and West.

South

• Falcons 61%
• Buccaneers 49%

West

• Seahawks 39%
• Cardinals 35%
• Rams 27%
• 49ers 6%

Right now, the Packers have the sixth seed in the NFC, which means they would face the Seattle Seahawks in Washington in the wild card round.

Week 14

Besides the Packers' own game, there aren't many scenarios that matter. Green Bay would have slightly better chances with a Seattle Seahawks' win over the Arizona Cardinals, and with a Los Angeles Rams' win over the Buffalo Bills.

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