Packers in line for extra Day 2 draft capital as new free agency projections offer encouraging outlook
Malik Willis and Rasheed Walker are expected to receive big contracts in free agency.
The Green Bay Packers are expected to receive two seventh-round compensatory picks in 2026. The outlook for 2027 is much better, though. With several free agents hitting the market next week, the Packers could realistically get two third-round picks based on the latest market projections — plus some late-rounders.
Malik Willis and Rasheed Walker will make a lot of money
Players from premium positions who rarely hit free agency, quarterback Malik Willis and left tackle Rasheed Walker are projected to earn significant contracts.
Seth Walder from ESPN created a tool to project free agent contracts based on media rankings of the top free agents, and the result is a projection of $32.73 million a year for the quarterback — the Arizona Cardinals, Miami Dolphins, and Cleveland Browns are frequently mentioned as potential landing spots for him.
Meanwhile, Rasheed Walker made Tom Pelissero’s list of players who could land surprisingly big contracts next week.
“Few seventh-round picks have made a bigger impact at a core position than Walker, who took over the Packers’ left tackle job in his second season (2023) and has started 48 of 52 career games. According to Next Gen Stats, Walker has allowed 19.5 sacks since becoming Jordan Love’s blind-side protector, which is tied for 12th-most among offensive tackles in that span. But young LTs with this many starts almost never hit the market. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Walker command $20 million or more per year.” — Tom Pelissero
How compensatory picks work
The NFL has a secret formula based mostly on yearly average of the deal and playing time to determine the 32 compensatory picks. It’s hard to know exactly which teams will get the picks until the NFL releases it, but Over the Cap has had an excellent track record with their projections.
For this year, the final third-rounder is from the Pittsburgh Steelers for losig Dan Moore Jr. — he’s making $20.5 million a year. And the first compensatory fourth-rounder goes to the San Francisco 49ers for Aaron Banks, who signed with the Packers for $19.25 million per season. Considering cap inflation, new free agents will have to sign a deal of around $21 million or more to generate a third in 2027.
It’s still unclear if Willis and Walker will get those numbers, but it’s going to be close. That means the Packers can end up with two third-round picks, a third and a fourth, or two fourths.
Wide receiver Romeo Doubs and linebacker Quay Walker are more in the fifth- to sixth-round range, but they could also generate extra picks for the Packers — even center Sean Rhyan may be part of the calculation.
Each team can receive up to four compensatory picks for losing players in free agency. However, the picks cancel out if the team also signs free agents of equivalent value — that’s why it’s important to have five to six players counting for it, so the front office has a margin to make its own moves without losing picks.
Next year, the Packers don’t have a first-rounder (traded for Micah Parsons) and a sixth-rounder (for Darian Kinnard), so the extra capital is key for general manager Brian Gutekunst to keep building a sustainable roster.
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