Middle of the field is the weakest link in a weak Packers defense
If the Green Bay Packers want a starting point to solve their defensive issues, it probably could come from what they are doing in the middle of the field. Against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, off-ball linebackers De'Vondre Campbell and Quay Walker were exposed in coverage. Safeties didn't help much either, and the result […]
If the Green Bay Packers want a starting point to solve their defensive issues, it probably could come from what they are doing in the middle of the field. Against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, off-ball linebackers De'Vondre Campbell and Quay Walker were exposed in coverage. Safeties didn't help much either, and the result was that the Bucs exploited it all day.
On throws between the numbers, Baker Mayfield completed 12/14 for 256 yards. All 12 completions went for first downs. The Bucs had 18.3 yards per attempt on these plays, with an 85.7% success rate, generating 1.72 EPA/dropback. It's an insane production — extrapolating this, it would be by far the best offense in football.
This play here is a good example.
It's Mike Evans, the best Bucs receiver, and three players are near him: a linebacker (De'Vondre Campbell), an edge defender (Preston Smith), and a safety (Rudy Ford).
Even if there are three players close to him, Evans still has a matchup advantage to exploit the zone and make a catch.
This other play shows how Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales purposefully and successfully created mismatches to expose the Packers linebackers in coverage. The Bucs had trips to the right side, the receivers on the same side of the formation.
Mike Evans was aligned outside, and tight end Cade Otton was in the slot. The inside option was David Moore, nothing more than a role player for them. But the formation allowed him to match up against De'Vondre Campbell, and Moore beat him easily. Keisean Nixon tried to make the tackle after the catch, but missed it and Moore ran until the endzone.
Different challenges
The Packers will probably suffer with this again when they face the Minnesota Vikings in two weeks. Under coach Kevin O'Connell, they are smart at using Justin Jefferson between zones, and tight end TJ Hockenson is a big weapon over the middle too. But against the Carolina Panthers next Sunday, there is a bounceback opportunity.
Without much protection or explosive receivers, rookie quarterback Bryce Young has been forced to throw quick and short passes. A good example was his passing chart against the Dallas Cowboys in week 11.
Outside of two incomplete go balls to the right side, everything else was passes of 20 or fewer yards.
With that in mind, the Packers can challenge the Panthers receivers and tight ends and play the linebackers and safeties closer to the line of scrimmage.
Success against the Panthers wouldn't mean that the Packers defensive issues are solved. But if they can't make it happen against the 30th offense in football by DVOA, it's hard to imagine them doing it against anybody else.
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