Packers get first look at J.J. McCarthy, and his mix of aggression and inconsistency will fully test Green Bay’s defense
Vikings quarterback struggled over his first five NFL games, but he has also shown some good attributes.
The start of J.J. McCarthy’s trajectory hasn’t been smooth on the Minnesota Vikings. Taken with the 10th overall pick in last year’s draft, he has missed 22 of 27 potential games due to multiple injuries. And in the five games he started, the numbers show a player struggling to find his rhythm and consistency at the NFL level.
On Sunday, McCarthy plays the Green Bay Packers for the first time in his career. The game at Lambeau Field has massive playoff implications for both sides, and the Packers want to consolidate their promising defense against a player who is essentially a rookie quarterback.
The numbers show part of the story
It’s impossible to look at McCarthy’s numbers and project much success. Outside of his willingness to push the ball down the field, every other metric is a failure.
J.J. McCarthy has been mostly inefficient (35th among 35 QBs in adjusted EPA/play), inconsistent (34th/35 in success rate), and hasn’t taken advantage of the scheme (35th/35 in completion percentage over expectation), via RBSDM, and last in passer rating.
Taking a look at qualitative tools from PFF, it doesn’t get much better. He’s 37th of 41 qualifying QBs in passing grade, 38th in passing grade, dead last in turnover-worthy play rate.
McCarthy doesn’t make the life of his offensive linemen easier, being 33rd in pressure to sack ratio and 35th in average time to throw.
If there’s one area where McCarthy is good at it’s creating explosive plays. He’s first in average depth of target and third in big-time throw rate, despite his struggles.
How J.J. McCarthy has actually played
Numbers tell part of the story, and putting so many stats together it’s easier to see the problems in McCarthy’s game early in his NFL career. But, according to Minnesota Vikings writer at A to Z Sports, Tyler Forness, McCarthy “has been objectively bad over the course of the first five games of his career, but it’s nowhere near as bad as it seems.”
When the Vikings took him out of Michigan, McCarthy’s ability to process information and to be a positive game manager were his calling card. That still applies in the NFL.
“What McCarthy has between the ears is a net positive,” Forness said. “He’s seeing things well with his progressions and making good decisions overall with the football. His big issue has been the footwork. He is all over the place, and hasn’t synced his eyes with his feet.
“Fixing that is easy in theory, but that doesn’t mean it will happen. Until it does, the Vikings are going to struggle on offense. However, the final drive on Sunday showed what McCarthy can do. If they can harness that, this offense can be explosive.”
Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell, who was able to transform Sam Darnold’s career path, has mentioned what needs to change.
“Whether it’s just the initial posture, where we’ve just learned that when he has great posture, you know, at the top of drops, he throws the ball really well,” said O’Connell after Sunday’s game against the Chicago Bears. “He did it Friday. Did it Thursday. And I even referenced on Friday, the type of practices we had.”
Last year, Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley was competent to scheme exotic pressure packages to limit the quarterback’s production. In 2025, with Micah Parsons in the fold, the team has leaned more into simple four-man rush to create pressure, and it has worked. But against a creative play-caller and an aggressive, but overall struggling young quarterback, Hafley could have another opportunity to diversify how he intends to attack the opposition.
Green Bay Packers News
Jordan Love makes the most out of rough situation to put the Packers back on track after a challenging stretch
Packers returned to the win column with a huge road victory against the New York Giants.
